NBA games

GS @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
121–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS23294029121
ORL34322128115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home ORL
88% 12%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 56 4 3
Quinten Post 24 18 5 1
Draymond Green S 32 12 10 4
Moses Moody S 25 10 1 0
Brandin Podziemski S 32 8 4 7
Gary Payton II 17 5 1 1
Jimmy Butler III S 32 5 4 7
Buddy Hield 18 3 1 2
Kevin Knox II 5 2 1 0
Gui Santos 7 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 41 6 5
Franz Wagner S 39 27 2 4
Cole Anthony S 26 11 7 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 9 14 4
Jonathan Isaac 13 7 7 1
Goga Bitadze 22 7 5 1
Jett Howard 20 6 1 1
Anthony Black 20 5 2 2
Tristan da Silva 3 2 0 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:34 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes 6-foot dunk (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
12%
4 Stephen Curry GS
11%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
6 Moses Moody GS
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Cole Anthony ORL
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
36%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.1 4.6 4.8
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.9 6.4 4.4
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.8 6.1 5.0
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 16.5 5.2 5.5
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 15.4 5.8 3.9
6 Cole Anthony ORL 12.5 4.0 3.2
7 Moses Moody GS 12.4 3.7 1.5
8 Draymond Green GS 11.0 5.2 5.7
9 Buddy Hield GS 10.1 3.2 1.5
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.1 7.3 1.7
11 Anthony Black ORL 9.9 3.5 2.3
12 Quinten Post GS 7.4 3.6 1.5
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.4 2.9 1.4
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.5 6.5 1.0
15 Gary Payton II GS 5.2 1.7 1.0
16 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.1 1.9 1.1
17 Kevon Looney GS 4.7 6.2 1.6
18 Kevin Knox II GS 4.7 2.4 0.6
19 Gui Santos GS 4.3 3.1 1.3
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.3 4.0 0.7
21 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.1 2.2 0.8
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.8 1.5 1.2
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.7 1.7 0.6
24 Pat Spencer GS 3.5 2.0 1.0
25 Mac McClung ORL 3.5 1.5 1.2
26 Gary Harris ORL 3.3 1.6 0.8
27 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.5 1.9 0.5
28 Cory Joseph ORL 1.8 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.