NBA games

SA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
106–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA20262931106
HOU34303717118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home HOU
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 29 22 5 2
Stephon Castle 30 22 7 5
Sandro Mamukelashvili 20 12 4 0
Julian Champagnie 21 11 4 1
Devin Vassell S 24 9 5 3
De'Aaron Fox S 28 7 3 3
Jeremy Sochan 12 7 5 0
Blake Wesley 11 5 1 5
Chris Paul S 22 4 1 4
Bismack Biyombo S 14 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 30 25 9 5
Jalen Green S 28 21 7 4
Dillon Brooks S 29 19 4 1
Jeff Green 20 13 3 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 9 10 1
Alperen Sengun S 19 9 11 3
Jae'Sean Tate 24 7 6 2
Jock Landale 8 5 3 0
Steven Adams 19 4 5 5
Nate Williams 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
15%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
5 Bismack Biyombo SA
9%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Tari Eason HOU
7%
9 Devin Vassell SA
7%
10 Chris Paul SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
13%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 24.0 4.8 5.5
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 22.8 4.6 6.7
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.9 11.2 4.1
4 Amen Thompson HOU 15.2 8.4 5.9
5 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.3 4.7 2.5
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.2 6.0 1.7
7 Tari Eason HOU 13.1 6.8 1.8
8 Devin Vassell SA 12.7 3.3 2.1
9 Stephon Castle SA 12.6 3.7 2.2
10 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.2 2.9 5.0
11 Harrison Barnes SA 10.9 4.5 1.5
12 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.2 5.9 2.4
13 Keldon Johnson SA 9.8 2.8 1.7
14 Chris Paul SA 8.6 2.6 6.4
15 Jeff Green HOU 8.1 2.6 1.1
16 Bismack Biyombo SA 7.8 6.9 1.1
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.6 2.8 1.3
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.6 2.6 1.9
19 Julian Champagnie SA 6.1 2.3 1.3
20 Jock Landale HOU 5.9 3.9 1.2
21 Steven Adams HOU 5.1 5.5 0.7
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.0 2.5 0.9
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.3 2.1 1.3
24 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.8 1.7 0.8
25 Nate Williams HOU 3.3 0.9 0.5
26 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.1 0.7 0.8
27 Malaki Branham SA 2.1 0.8 0.5
28 Blake Wesley SA 2.0 0.9 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.