NBA games

SAC @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
118–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC22332835118
UTAH22242332101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home UTAH
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 33 26 6 2
Zach LaVine S 38 22 8 3
DeMar DeRozan S 34 19 6 8
Jonas Valanciunas 14 15 7 2
Malik Monk S 35 13 9 6
Domantas Sabonis S 34 12 9 5
Keon Ellis 33 11 1 2
Markelle Fultz 4 0 1 0
Jake LaRavia 15 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Walker Kessler S 34 25 14 5
KJ Martin S 34 16 5 4
Brice Sensabaugh S 23 12 4 0
Keyonte George 33 11 3 5
Kyle Filipowski 14 9 1 3
Johnny Juzang 16 9 1 0
Isaiah Collier S 26 9 3 7
Jaden Springer 11 5 1 2
Cody Williams 18 3 2 0
Jordan Clarkson S 31 2 0 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Monk · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:22 Q1
"Malik Monk makes 15-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
2 Malik Monk SAC
10%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC
9%
6 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
6%
9 KJ Martin UTAH
6%
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
30%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.4 4.5 5.3
2 Zach LaVine SAC 24.1 3.8 5.6
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.0 3.4 5.0
4 Malik Monk SAC 20.4 4.4 6.7
5 Keyonte George UTAH 20.1 4.0 6.3
6 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.9 3.2 3.6
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.8 12.8 6.0
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 14.1 4.3 9.5
9 Keegan Murray SAC 12.2 6.0 1.8
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 11.9 12.2 2.0
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 11.4 3.4 1.7
12 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 10.8 5.6 2.1
13 Keon Ellis SAC 10.6 3.4 1.6
14 KJ Martin UTAH 8.9 3.8 1.2
15 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 7.8 6.4 1.8
16 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.8 2.5 1.3
17 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 6.4 2.2 1.2
18 Cody Williams UTAH 6.2 2.8 1.7
19 Trey Lyles SAC 4.7 2.8 1.1
20 Jake LaRavia SAC 4.0 2.9 1.2
21 Jae Crowder SAC 4.0 2.2 0.8
22 Mason Jones SAC 3.5 1.7 1.2
23 Doug McDermott SAC 3.4 1.1 0.7
24 Jaden Springer UTAH 3.4 1.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.