NBA games

LAC @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
122–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC31283924122
CHI26343324117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home CHI
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 36 30 2 6
Amir Coffey 27 20 3 1
Kawhi Leonard S 33 17 8 4
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 16 4 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 25 14 0 6
Ivica Zubac S 30 10 10 3
Ben Simmons 18 6 8 8
Kris Dunn S 27 5 4 3
Drew Eubanks 4 4 3 0
Nicolas Batum 17 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach Collins S 38 21 17 7
Josh Giddey S 37 21 8 12
Coby White S 31 19 1 3
Tre Jones 18 16 2 2
Lonzo Ball S 28 15 4 3
Kevin Huerter 28 13 2 3
Dalen Terry 18 5 1 3
Matas Buzelis S 26 5 4 2
Julian Phillips 16 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lonzo Ball · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Lonzo Ball makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Zach Collins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
12%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
5 Lonzo Ball CHI
9%
6 James Harden LAC
9%
7 Zach Collins CHI
8%
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Nicolas Batum LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
29%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Josh Giddey CHI 21.7 7.7 5.4
2 James Harden LAC 21.1 5.5 9.1
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 20.9 5.5 4.1
4 Coby White CHI 19.1 3.6 5.3
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 17.1 12.6 2.6
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.5 4.3 1.7
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.7 3.7 1.5
8 Amir Coffey LAC 10.6 2.6 1.4
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.4 3.1 2.2
10 Lonzo Ball CHI 9.6 3.4 2.4
11 Ben Simmons LAC 9.3 5.3 6.1
12 Kris Dunn LAC 7.1 4.3 3.4
13 Kevin Huerter CHI 6.5 2.0 1.7
14 Tre Jones CHI 6.1 1.8 2.3
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.4 3.0 0.9
16 Dalen Terry CHI 5.4 1.8 1.6
17 Julian Phillips CHI 5.4 2.3 0.7
18 Drew Eubanks LAC 5.1 3.5 0.9
19 Zach Collins CHI 4.5 2.8 1.0
20 Jevon Carter CHI 4.5 1.3 1.1
21 Patty Mills LAC 4.0 1.5 1.0
22 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.5 1.7 0.7
23 MarJon Beauchamp LAC 3.4 1.5 0.9
24 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 3.3 1.4 0.8
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.6 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.