NBA games

ATL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
109–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28372816109
MIA29364224131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIA
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dyson Daniels S 33 18 5 5
Caris LeVert 32 17 2 2
Trae Young S 36 17 2 8
Terance Mann 29 13 4 4
Onyeka Okongwu S 32 13 9 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 26 11 3 3
Clint Capela 16 8 3 2
Georges Niang 24 7 4 2
Mouhamed Gueye S 12 5 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson 33 24 5 6
Tyler Herro S 34 24 2 10
Bam Adebayo S 35 20 9 3
Davion Mitchell S 37 20 0 6
Andrew Wiggins S 29 15 2 6
Haywood Highsmith 27 14 7 5
Kel'el Ware S 29 12 8 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 8 2 2 1
Pelle Larsson 1 0 0 0
Alec Burks 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
14%
2 Trae Young ATL
13%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
12%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
10%
7 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
9 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
22%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.8 4.9 6.7
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 24.0 10.0 3.7
3 Trae Young ATL 23.2 3.2 11.3
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.5 5.1 3.5
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.5 6.9 5.3
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.3 9.3 3.2
7 Terry Rozier MIA 13.1 3.8 2.3
8 Nikola Jovic MIA 13.0 3.8 3.4
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.0 4.0 1.6
10 Georges Niang ATL 11.3 4.0 1.6
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.7 2.3 4.2
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.2 9.9 1.9
13 Caris LeVert ATL 9.6 3.8 2.0
14 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.0 2.2 2.1
15 Clint Capela ATL 7.8 8.5 0.9
16 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.3 4.1 2.3
17 Kyle Anderson MIA 6.3 3.6 1.8
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.2 1.5 2.2
19 Terance Mann ATL 6.0 2.5 1.4
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.9 4.0 0.9
21 Alec Burks MIA 5.9 3.2 1.3
22 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.1 1.9 1.1
23 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.6 2.3 0.4
24 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.5 1.7 0.5
25 Kevin Love MIA 3.5 1.9 0.8
26 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.7 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.