NBA games

OKC @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
129–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC29322939129
BKN40362025121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home BKN
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 27 6 5
Aaron Wiggins 29 24 5 3
Jalen Williams S 34 22 5 4
Chet Holmgren S 32 22 17 4
Cason Wallace 30 13 3 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 24 13 2 3
Alex Caruso 20 5 2 3
Luguentz Dort S 21 3 1 2
Isaiah Joe 12 0 2 0
Jaylin Williams 5 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Day'Ron Sharpe S 31 25 15 5
Killian Hayes S 34 19 2 7
Cameron Johnson S 33 19 3 7
Ziaire Williams S 29 18 10 1
Keon Johnson S 29 16 3 4
Tosan Evbuomwan 15 9 3 0
Jalen Wilson 18 7 1 2
Tyrese Martin 19 3 2 0
Trendon Watford 18 3 5 4
Reece Beekman 14 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Day'Ron Sharpe · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Day'Ron Sharpe makes alley oop dunk shot (Killian Hayes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cameron Johnson BKN
12%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
12%
4 Keon Johnson BKN
12%
5 Ziaire Williams BKN
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
8 Killian Hayes BKN
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
40%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 25.9 4.5 6.0
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.3 4.1 4.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.4 4.8 5.0
4 Cameron Johnson BKN 17.7 4.2 2.7
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC 14.8 4.2 1.9
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.6 7.5 1.5
7 Keon Johnson BKN 13.6 5.0 2.8
8 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.1 5.3 1.6
9 Trendon Watford BKN 10.6 3.4 2.6
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.1 9.4 2.6
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.8 3.5 1.4
12 Cason Wallace OKC 9.1 3.7 2.2
13 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.1 3.4 1.7
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.8 6.4 1.9
15 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 8.1 3.1 1.7
16 Alex Caruso OKC 8.0 3.3 3.0
17 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.0 2.7 1.6
18 Killian Hayes BKN 7.7 3.2 4.9
19 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.7 3.1 1.4
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.8 6.2 2.3
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 2.6 1.6
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.2 1.9 1.1
23 Reece Beekman BKN 3.2 1.4 1.6
24 Maxwell Lewis BKN 1.5 0.8 0.3
25 Adam Flagler OKC 1.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.