NBA games

POR @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
129–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR34213935129
WSH27273433121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home WSH
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe 33 36 8 5
Scoot Henderson 26 16 2 1
Anfernee Simons S 36 16 4 5
Jerami Grant S 37 15 6 1
Jabari Walker 19 12 4 4
Kris Murray 24 12 6 1
Toumani Camara S 32 11 5 2
Deni Avdija S 6 5 2 1
Donovan Clingan S 18 4 8 3
Dalano Banton 11 2 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 31 24 5 3
Richaun Holmes S 19 20 5 2
Corey Kispert 26 20 3 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 35 16 2 3
Marcus Smart 20 10 2 3
Tristan Vukcevic 19 8 2 1
Khris Middleton S 24 8 4 5
Bub Carrington 26 8 8 4
Kyshawn George S 27 7 5 2
Justin Champagnie 12 0 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes driving layup (Toumani Camara assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
3 Deni Avdija POR
10%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
6 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
9 Jerami Grant POR
8%
10 Khris Middleton WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jordan Poole WSH 23.2 4.2 5.1
2 Anfernee Simons POR 21.9 3.1 6.6
3 Deni Avdija POR 17.2 5.6 3.8
4 Deandre Ayton POR 17.1 10.1 2.1
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 15.4 3.2 2.6
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 14.7 4.9 4.8
7 Scoot Henderson POR 14.1 3.2 5.9
8 Corey Kispert WSH 13.8 3.5 2.3
9 Toumani Camara POR 13.4 7.2 2.3
10 Khris Middleton WSH 12.5 3.4 3.5
11 Jerami Grant POR 12.2 3.5 2.4
12 Bub Carrington WSH 12.1 3.4 4.1
13 Kyshawn George WSH 11.2 5.5 2.5
14 Richaun Holmes WSH 9.7 7.0 1.7
15 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 7.8 3.5 1.3
16 Marcus Smart WSH 7.7 2.1 2.8
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.9 3.8 0.9
18 Donovan Clingan POR 6.7 7.4 0.8
19 Dalano Banton POR 6.1 1.7 1.7
20 Jabari Walker POR 5.7 3.8 0.9
21 Robert Williams III POR 4.7 6.3 0.8
22 Kris Murray POR 3.3 1.9 0.7
23 Duop Reath POR 2.7 1.1 0.6
24 Jalen McDaniels WSH 2.6 1.6 0.5
25 Jaylen Martin WSH 2.2 0.9 0.3
26 AJ Johnson WSH 2.2 0.7 0.8
27 Rayan Rupert POR 2.1 1.1 0.6
28 Anthony Gill WSH 1.9 0.8 0.5
29 Colby Jones WSH 1.4 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.