NBA games

PHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
105–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI21242931105
NY33282227110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NY
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 44 30 4 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 42 27 5 1
Paul George S 42 25 8 7
Andre Drummond S 29 7 9 5
Justin Edwards 28 6 1 2
Adem Bona 17 5 5 0
Quentin Grimes S 21 3 1 0
Lonnie Walker IV 11 2 1 0
Ricky Council IV 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 34 3 7
Mikal Bridges S 41 28 2 3
OG Anunoby S 42 16 9 3
Ariel Hukporti S 16 8 2 0
Precious Achiuwa 31 7 6 2
Josh Hart S 39 7 17 4
Miles McBride 17 6 2 1
Cameron Payne 11 4 1 2
Landry Shamet 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Paul George makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Josh Hart NY
14%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
13%
4 OG Anunoby NY
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
7 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
8 Paul George PHI
10%
9 Quentin Grimes PHI
7%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
34%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.9 3.6 6.6
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.4 3.4 6.9
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.8 11.0 2.8
4 Josh Hart NY 20.1 10.6 6.6
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.3 7.3 1.8
6 OG Anunoby NY 16.1 4.3 2.6
7 Mikal Bridges NY 15.1 3.9 3.6
8 Paul George PHI 15.0 4.0 2.8
9 Quentin Grimes PHI 13.7 4.5 2.9
10 Precious Achiuwa NY 10.9 7.8 1.6
11 Justin Edwards PHI 9.2 3.1 1.7
12 Miles McBride NY 9.2 2.5 1.7
13 Cameron Payne NY 6.5 1.6 3.1
14 Jared Butler PHI 6.0 2.2 2.6
15 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 5.9 2.3 1.9
16 Andre Drummond PHI 5.7 5.4 1.0
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.9 1.7 1.7
18 David Roddy PHI 4.4 3.1 1.0
19 Adem Bona PHI 4.2 3.9 0.7
20 Landry Shamet NY 4.2 1.2 0.9
21 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.9 1.5 2.0
22 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.6 1.1 0.6
23 Delon Wright NY 2.4 1.3 1.5
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.1 2.0 0.5
25 Matt Ryan NY 2.0 0.7 0.5
26 Tyler Kolek NY 1.4 0.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.