NBA games

TOR @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
91–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2417232791
IND26253030111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home IND
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 30 18 2 6
RJ Barrett S 32 16 2 5
Jonathan Mogbo 22 16 6 0
Jakob Poeltl S 24 10 5 2
Gradey Dick S 28 10 5 4
Ochai Agbaji S 31 10 4 0
Orlando Robinson 12 8 3 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 23 3 8 1
Jamal Shead 20 0 1 4
Chris Boucher 19 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 33 33 3 11
Myles Turner S 29 18 10 2
Pascal Siakam S 32 15 8 2
Aaron Nesmith S 24 12 5 3
Bennedict Mathurin 24 10 4 2
Thomas Bryant 19 8 4 1
Andrew Nembhard S 28 7 0 3
Obi Toppin 14 4 1 0
Ben Sheppard 29 4 5 3
Johnny Furphy 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ochai Agbaji · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Ochai Agbaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
6 Myles Turner IND
9%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Gradey Dick TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
25%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.0 5.3 6.9
2 RJ Barrett TOR 22.7 6.1 5.2
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.9 7.0 5.6
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.4 3.7 8.7
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.2 4.2 5.6
6 Pascal Siakam IND 16.5 6.1 2.3
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.8 4.3 2.1
8 Myles Turner IND 15.3 5.1 2.2
9 Obi Toppin IND 12.7 4.9 2.0
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.2 8.2 3.1
11 Gradey Dick TOR 12.1 4.5 1.6
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.5 3.2 3.7
13 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.0 3.6 1.6
14 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.9 4.2 1.4
15 Jamal Shead TOR 9.7 2.2 4.6
16 Thomas Bryant IND 9.2 5.7 2.0
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.0 3.4 1.5
18 Chris Boucher TOR 8.7 4.7 1.0
19 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 7.5 3.9 2.2
20 Ben Sheppard IND 7.3 3.1 1.4
21 Orlando Robinson TOR 5.8 3.7 1.7
22 Jarace Walker IND 3.1 1.8 1.3
23 Johnny Furphy IND 2.1 1.4 0.5
24 RayJ Dennis IND 1.4 0.7 0.3
25 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.