NBA games

BOS @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
97–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2035241897
DET29263527117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DET
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 33 27 6 3
Derrick White S 31 18 3 3
Payton Pritchard 31 18 3 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 26 11 2 1
Al Horford S 30 9 10 2
Jrue Holiday S 31 4 2 6
JD Davison 5 3 0 0
Drew Peterson 5 3 0 0
Sam Hauser 12 3 1 1
Baylor Scheierman 5 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley 22 26 5 2
Cade Cunningham S 34 21 4 11
Tobias Harris S 34 16 9 2
Jalen Duren S 26 13 11 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 29 9 4 2
Ronald Holland II 19 8 3 3
Marcus Sasser 21 8 1 3
Ausar Thompson S 27 7 6 2
Isaiah Stewart 20 4 5 1
Lindy Waters III 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 26-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris DET
13%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Torrey Craig BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
28%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.2 5.9 9.2
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.1 6.5 5.9
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.6 6.7 2.7
4 Derrick White BOS 18.4 4.7 5.4
5 Tobias Harris DET 17.1 5.2 2.0
6 Malik Beasley DET 15.4 2.8 2.0
7 Jalen Duren DET 15.1 10.6 3.7
8 Ausar Thompson DET 13.3 6.0 3.9
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.9 4.4 3.7
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 9.9 3.8 2.5
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.1 2.7 1.8
12 Dennis Schroder DET 9.1 2.8 3.8
13 Sam Hauser BOS 7.8 3.1 1.1
14 Al Horford BOS 7.6 5.6 1.2
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.2 4.8 1.4
16 Torrey Craig BOS 6.2 2.8 0.9
17 Ronald Holland II DET 5.4 1.8 1.2
18 Neemias Queta BOS 5.0 2.9 0.8
19 Marcus Sasser DET 4.8 0.9 2.3
20 JD Davison BOS 4.1 1.5 1.3
21 Daniss Jenkins DET 3.7 1.5 1.0
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.9 1.3 0.7
23 Lindy Waters III DET 2.9 1.7 0.6
24 Paul Reed DET 2.9 2.7 0.7
25 Anton Watson BOS 2.8 1.2 1.0
26 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.6 1.7 0.7
27 Drew Peterson BOS 2.4 1.5 0.7
28 Bobi Klintman DET 1.4 0.6 0.3
29 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.