NBA games

DAL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
99–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2031262299
LAL28311929107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAL
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 40 35 7 4
Klay Thompson S 30 22 8 1
Max Christie S 37 10 1 6
Spencer Dinwiddie 27 9 1 3
Naji Marshall 24 9 5 3
Dante Exum 11 8 3 1
Kessler Edwards S 13 4 3 0
Dwight Powell 16 2 5 0
P.J. Washington S 35 0 10 5
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 7 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 27 12 3
Austin Reaves S 38 20 3 5
Luka Doncic S 35 19 15 12
Rui Hachimura S 38 15 6 0
Jaxson Hayes S 17 8 8 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 14 8 3 2
Dalton Knecht 10 5 0 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 28 2 8 2
Gabe Vincent 16 2 0 0
Jordan Goodwin 6 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
2 LeBron James LAL
13%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
12%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
8 Kessler Edwards DAL
8%
9 Dante Exum DAL
7%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
37%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 29.5 8.7 9.6
2 Luka Doncic LAL 25.6 8.7 7.6
3 Austin Reaves LAL 24.8 4.9 6.8
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.0 4.9 4.1
5 P.J. Washington DAL 20.0 9.0 3.2
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 17.3 5.4 2.0
7 Max Christie DAL 15.7 4.5 3.2
8 Klay Thompson DAL 13.6 4.0 2.3
9 Naji Marshall DAL 13.0 5.5 2.4
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 10.4 2.3 3.5
11 Dante Exum DAL 9.6 2.0 3.7
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.9 3.6 1.9
13 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.7 1.7 2.4
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.3 5.5 1.8
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.9 2.1 0.8
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.8 1.6 1.2
17 Jordan Goodwin LAL 5.8 4.0 1.1
18 Kessler Edwards DAL 5.7 4.0 1.6
19 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 5.5 3.1 1.4
20 Brandon Williams DAL 4.2 1.3 1.6
21 Shake Milton LAL 4.2 2.0 1.4
22 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.0 4.9 1.2
23 Moses Brown DAL 3.6 2.4 0.7
24 Kylor Kelley DAL 3.2 2.2 0.5
25 Cam Reddish LAL 3.1 1.6 0.7
26 Markieff Morris LAL 2.5 0.8 0.6
27 Alex Len LAL 2.3 1.9 0.8
28 Dwight Powell DAL 2.2 2.3 0.9
29 Bronny James LAL 2.2 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.