NBA games

CHA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
92–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA1823242792
GS28284131128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home GS
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
KJ Simpson S 36 16 6 2
Seth Curry 17 14 2 1
Wendell Moore Jr. 28 12 10 0
Mark Williams S 25 12 12 0
Damion Baugh 29 9 5 5
Nick Smith Jr. S 33 9 2 2
Miles Bridges S 26 9 7 2
Josh Green S 25 6 1 3
Moussa Diabate 23 5 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield 20 16 2 1
Draymond Green S 23 15 6 6
Stephen Curry S 24 15 4 6
Gary Payton II 14 14 2 4
Moses Moody S 23 13 1 1
Kevin Knox II 15 12 5 3
Brandin Podziemski S 25 10 5 2
Quinten Post 18 8 3 2
Jackson Rowe 8 6 1 0
Jimmy Butler III S 19 6 8 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Mark Williams makes 7-foot layup (Josh Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
3 Mark Williams CHA
13%
4 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
10%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
6 Stephen Curry GS
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Moses Moody GS
8%
9 Josh Green CHA
8%
10 Jusuf Nurkic CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
41%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.1 4.9 5.4
2 Miles Bridges CHA 22.8 7.5 4.2
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.0 5.3 5.8
4 Brandin Podziemski GS 16.9 5.9 4.5
5 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 16.4 2.7 3.0
6 Mark Williams CHA 16.1 10.6 2.4
7 Damion Baugh CHA 12.8 2.9 4.4
8 Moses Moody GS 12.8 4.0 1.7
9 Buddy Hield GS 11.0 3.6 1.9
10 Draymond Green GS 10.4 4.8 5.9
11 Josh Green CHA 9.9 2.6 1.7
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.1 8.2 1.4
13 KJ Simpson CHA 8.6 2.9 2.9
14 Quinten Post GS 7.9 4.1 1.7
15 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.7 7.2 3.7
16 Seth Curry CHA 7.3 2.2 1.2
17 Gary Payton II GS 6.2 2.4 1.3
18 Josh Okogie CHA 5.4 2.1 1.0
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.1 6.6 1.8
20 Pat Spencer GS 4.9 1.8 1.4
21 Elfrid Payton CHA 4.8 2.8 3.2
22 Gui Santos GS 4.7 3.5 1.3
23 Kevin Knox II GS 4.2 2.0 0.6
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.1 2.2 0.7
25 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 2.8 1.4 0.6
26 Taj Gibson CHA 2.8 3.9 0.5
27 Jackson Rowe GS 2.7 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.