NBA games

SA @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
103109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA30213220103
NO16333030109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home NO
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 33 20 5 3
De'Aaron Fox S 38 15 3 9
Harrison Barnes S 31 15 5 2
Chris Paul S 33 12 0 10
Jeremy Sochan 19 12 9 2
Keldon Johnson 24 11 4 0
Bismack Biyombo S 23 10 12 1
Stephon Castle 12 4 4 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 12 2 1 1
Julian Champagnie 15 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 36 24 4 4
Zion Williamson S 29 18 6 3
CJ McCollum S 29 13 4 5
Jordan Hawkins 24 12 4 0
Yves Missi S 28 10 11 0
Karlo Matkovic 18 8 2 0
Bruce Brown 29 8 6 6
Jose Alvarado 20 7 5 4
Kelly Olynyk S 23 6 12 3
Antonio Reeves 4 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chris Paul · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Chris Paul makes 22-foot three point jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
14%
2 CJ McCollum NO
13%
3 Zion Williamson NO
12%
4 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
5 Bismack Biyombo SA
8%
6 Yves Missi NO
8%
7 Herbert Jones NO
7%
8 Devin Vassell SA
7%
9 Kelly Olynyk NO
7%
10 Chris Paul SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
29%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 27.8 7.8 4.9
2 Trey Murphy III NO 24.9 5.8 6.3
3 CJ McCollum NO 23.7 5.0 4.6
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 23.3 5.1 7.1
5 Stephon Castle SA 15.7 4.2 3.1
6 Devin Vassell SA 13.4 3.3 2.4
7 Jose Alvarado NO 12.2 3.7 5.3
8 Harrison Barnes SA 11.0 4.6 1.7
9 Keldon Johnson SA 11.0 3.0 2.1
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.6 4.1 4.3
11 Jeremy Sochan SA 9.9 5.6 2.7
12 Kelly Olynyk NO 9.6 4.8 3.0
13 Chris Paul SA 9.2 3.0 7.0
14 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.1 2.9 1.6
15 Karlo Matkovic NO 8.5 5.7 1.5
16 Yves Missi NO 8.3 8.9 1.4
17 Bismack Biyombo SA 7.4 5.7 1.3
18 Julian Champagnie SA 6.7 2.5 1.6
19 Bruce Brown NO 6.6 3.3 1.4
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.3 2.5 1.1
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.1 3.4 1.0
22 Antonio Reeves NO 4.0 1.5 1.1
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.0 1.0 1.0
24 Malaki Branham SA 3.0 1.1 0.8
25 Blake Wesley SA 2.8 1.2 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.