NBA games

PHX @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
148–151
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHX3428413411148
MEM3127433614151

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MEM
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 35 28 3 10
Kevin Durant S 43 26 8 7
Bradley Beal S 43 24 5 11
Bol Bol S 32 23 8 1
Grayson Allen 30 21 3 3
Royce O'Neale 15 10 4 1
Mason Plumlee 34 7 7 3
Nick Richards S 16 6 4 0
Tyus Jones 12 3 3 3
Ryan Dunn 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 37 29 4 8
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 28 6 1
Desmond Bane S 43 25 3 9
Jaylen Wells S 40 19 5 2
Santi Aldama 32 17 6 5
Brandon Clarke 21 14 5 2
Zach Edey S 20 8 8 1
Luke Kennard 19 6 0 5
Vince Williams Jr. 13 5 0 0
GG Jackson 8 0 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bol Bol · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Bol Bol makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Bradley Beal assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Ja Morant MEM
11%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
5 Zach Edey MEM
9%
6 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
7 Nick Richards PHX
9%
8 Bradley Beal PHX
7%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
10 Vasilije Micic PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
30%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.7 4.0 7.1
2 Kevin Durant PHX 22.5 5.0 4.1
3 Bradley Beal PHX 22.4 4.2 4.6
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.6 5.4 3.2
5 Desmond Bane MEM 21.3 7.3 5.5
6 Ja Morant MEM 21.2 4.4 7.7
7 Santi Aldama MEM 13.0 6.2 2.8
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.4 4.0 2.3
9 Grayson Allen PHX 10.9 3.8 3.2
10 Tyus Jones PHX 9.6 2.7 5.2
11 Luke Kennard MEM 9.6 2.8 3.2
12 Vasilije Micic PHX 9.2 2.3 3.6
13 GG Jackson MEM 9.2 3.4 1.3
14 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.7 5.1 1.2
15 Jaylen Wells MEM 8.5 3.0 1.4
16 Bol Bol PHX 8.4 4.2 1.0
17 Nick Richards PHX 7.2 8.6 0.9
18 Zach Edey MEM 7.2 8.5 1.1
19 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.7 3.7 1.9
20 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.4 2.8 3.1
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.1 5.6 1.9
22 Lamar Stevens MEM 5.1 3.8 1.4
23 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.6 1.7 1.4
24 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 4.4 1.7 1.3
25 Marvin Bagley III MEM 4.4 3.1 0.5
26 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.1 2.5 0.8
27 Damion Lee PHX 3.1 0.8 0.4
28 Oso Ighodaro PHX 2.7 1.9 0.9
29 John Konchar MEM 2.6 2.0 0.6
30 Jay Huff MEM 2.3 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.