NBA games

MIL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
97–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2534261297
HOU30272815100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home HOU
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 27 10 6
Damian Lillard S 37 22 1 3
Brook Lopez S 35 12 8 3
AJ Green 33 12 5 1
Kyle Kuzma S 34 9 6 1
Taurean Prince S 25 6 2 5
Gary Trent Jr. 20 5 2 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 11 4 0 0
Jericho Sims 13 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 37 25 8 3
Alperen Sengun S 35 23 11 3
Dillon Brooks S 35 16 8 4
Jabari Smith Jr. 33 13 8 0
Tari Eason S 32 12 6 1
Amen Thompson S 34 9 9 6
Jeff Green 12 2 0 1
Aaron Holiday 11 0 2 0
Jae'Sean Tate 2 0 0 0
Jock Landale 9 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taurean Prince · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Taurean Prince makes 24-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Jalen Green HOU
11%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
8 Damian Lillard MIL
6%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
10 Tari Eason HOU
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
4%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.0 11.5 5.4
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.6 4.4 5.4
3 Damian Lillard MIL 23.1 4.4 6.9
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.2 11.0 4.1
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 18.4 6.4 2.8
6 Amen Thompson HOU 16.5 8.5 6.4
7 Bobby Portis MIL 14.0 9.1 2.4
8 Brook Lopez MIL 13.5 5.2 1.8
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.3 5.8 1.8
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.0 4.8 2.2
11 Tari Eason HOU 12.7 6.5 1.8
12 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.0 2.9 5.1
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.6 3.1 1.9
14 Taurean Prince MIL 11.2 3.7 1.8
15 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 8.8 3.6 2.5
16 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.3 3.1 1.5
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.0 2.4 1.9
18 AJ Green MIL 7.9 2.4 1.5
19 Jeff Green HOU 7.8 2.4 1.0
20 Jock Landale HOU 5.8 3.9 1.2
21 Steven Adams HOU 5.7 5.7 0.9
22 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.0 1.8 1.5
23 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.7 2.1 1.0
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.6 2.3 1.0
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.1 2.0 1.3
26 Nate Williams HOU 3.3 1.0 0.5
27 Jericho Sims MIL 3.2 3.3 0.8
28 Tyler Smith MIL 2.7 1.2 0.4
29 Liam Robbins MIL 2.4 1.5 0.5
30 Chris Livingston MIL 1.2 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.