NBA games

CLE @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
122–82
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE34233530122
ORL1627231682

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ORL
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ty Jerome 21 20 2 2
De'Andre Hunter 27 17 3 2
Evan Mobley S 28 17 8 2
Max Strus S 21 17 1 2
Donovan Mitchell S 23 11 3 5
Jarrett Allen S 25 8 7 1
Isaac Okoro S 24 8 4 2
Dean Wade 19 5 7 2
Sam Merrill 19 5 2 1
Jaylon Tyson 8 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 32 26 5 4
Franz Wagner S 35 19 5 4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 22 9 0 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 26 9 6 1
Cole Anthony S 21 6 5 4
Trevelin Queen 6 4 0 0
Jonathan Isaac 14 2 5 1
Anthony Black 22 2 4 2
Jett Howard 16 2 2 1
Caleb Houstan 6 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
5 Cole Anthony ORL
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
7 Max Strus CLE
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
10 Javonte Green CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 25.4 6.3 4.1
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.0 6.2 5.2
3 Evan Mobley CLE 21.5 9.0 3.6
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.3 4.3 4.9
5 Ty Jerome CLE 15.6 3.5 3.9
6 Cole Anthony ORL 14.7 4.1 3.4
7 De'Andre Hunter CLE 14.4 4.3 1.7
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.6 11.0 2.0
9 Anthony Black ORL 10.3 3.4 2.3
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.1 6.9 1.8
11 Max Strus CLE 9.7 4.1 3.3
12 Sam Merrill CLE 8.2 2.6 1.2
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 6.9 2.9 1.3
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.0 6.7 1.1
15 Dean Wade CLE 5.7 4.4 1.6
16 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.6 2.0 1.1
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.3 2.1 1.0
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.3 2.0 1.6
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.0 4.1 0.8
20 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.0 2.1 1.1
21 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.4 2.2 1.3
22 Javonte Green CLE 4.3 2.8 1.0
23 Jett Howard ORL 4.3 1.3 1.2
24 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.2 1.6 0.7
25 Gary Harris ORL 3.4 1.7 0.8
26 Cory Joseph ORL 2.7 0.9 0.7
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.5 2.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.