BOS @ TOR
NBA
Scotiabank Arena
·Final
111–101
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 35 | 31 | 23 | 22 | 111 |
| TOR | 24 | 30 | 22 | 25 | 101 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS
away
home
TOR
87%
13%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown S | 33 | 24 | 5 | 4 |
| Derrick White S | 38 | 22 | 3 | 5 |
| Payton Pritchard | 35 | 20 | 7 | 2 |
| Jayson Tatum S | 40 | 19 | 6 | 11 |
| Sam Hauser S | 40 | 10 | 5 | 0 |
| Neemias Queta | 20 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
| Torrey Craig S | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Walsh | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| JD Davison | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Jaylen Brown ·
Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 12-foot two point shot (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Scottie Barnes
TOR
11%
2
Jayson Tatum
BOS
11%
3
Jaylen Brown
BOS
10%
4
RJ Barrett
TOR
10%
5
Jakob Poeltl
TOR
10%
6
Gradey Dick
TOR
9%
7
Kristaps Porzingis
BOS
8%
8
Immanuel Quickley
TOR
8%
9
Orlando Robinson
TOR
8%
10
Derrick White
BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
25%
Layup
29%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS | 24.9 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| 2 | RJ Barrett | TOR | 21.2 | 6.0 | 4.6 |
| 3 | Kristaps Porzingis | BOS | 20.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 |
| 4 | Jaylen Brown | BOS | 20.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 |
| 5 | Scottie Barnes | TOR | 19.6 | 7.1 | 5.1 |
| 6 | Derrick White | BOS | 18.6 | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| 7 | Immanuel Quickley | TOR | 18.1 | 3.9 | 5.0 |
| 8 | Payton Pritchard | BOS | 12.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| 9 | Gradey Dick | TOR | 11.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| 10 | Jakob Poeltl | TOR | 11.3 | 7.6 | 2.8 |
| 11 | Jrue Holiday | BOS | 10.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 |
| 12 | Jamal Shead | TOR | 9.3 | 1.9 | 4.2 |
| 13 | Ochai Agbaji | TOR | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| 14 | Ja'Kobe Walter | TOR | 9.0 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 15 | Chris Boucher | TOR | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 |
| 16 | Al Horford | BOS | 8.1 | 6.0 | 1.3 |
| 17 | Sam Hauser | BOS | 7.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 18 | Jonathan Mogbo | TOR | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| 19 | Orlando Robinson | TOR | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 |
| 20 | Torrey Craig | BOS | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 21 | JD Davison | BOS | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 22 | Neemias Queta | BOS | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| 23 | Jordan Walsh | BOS | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 24 | Baylor Scheierman | BOS | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 25 | Xavier Tillman | BOS | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 26 | Garrett Temple | TOR | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.