NBA games

CHA @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
88–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2322271688
SAC34312342130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home SAC
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 30 23 6 1
Nick Smith Jr. S 33 13 1 2
LaMelo Ball S 29 13 6 9
Jusuf Nurkic S 27 12 9 3
Moussa Diabate 21 12 7 0
Tidjane Salaun 23 4 3 0
Damion Baugh 26 4 2 4
Wendell Moore Jr. 12 4 1 1
Josh Green S 25 3 0 1
Elfrid Payton 14 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 31 42 3 2
DeMar DeRozan S 31 18 7 3
Malik Monk S 31 13 4 10
Keegan Murray S 25 10 5 0
Devin Carter 7 9 1 0
Trey Lyles 13 8 4 1
Domantas Sabonis S 27 7 10 7
Keon Ellis 9 6 0 0
Jonas Valanciunas 14 6 8 1
Markelle Fultz 18 5 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three pointer (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine SAC
16%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
5 Malik Monk SAC
10%
6 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
10%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Josh Green CHA
7%
10 Taj Gibson CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
20%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.1 4.3 5.0
2 Miles Bridges CHA 23.5 7.7 4.5
3 Zach LaVine SAC 22.6 4.0 5.4
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.7 4.3 6.7
5 Malik Monk SAC 20.0 4.8 6.3
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 19.3 13.5 6.4
7 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 16.2 2.8 3.2
8 Keegan Murray SAC 13.0 6.5 1.8
9 Keon Ellis SAC 10.7 3.8 1.7
10 Josh Green CHA 10.3 2.5 1.9
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.2 8.6 1.6
12 Seth Curry CHA 7.7 2.2 1.3
13 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 7.7 6.6 1.7
14 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.6 6.7 4.1
15 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.4 4.0 1.3
16 Elfrid Payton CHA 6.1 3.0 5.1
17 Jae Crowder SAC 4.1 2.3 0.8
18 Trey Lyles SAC 4.0 2.7 1.0
19 Jake LaRavia SAC 3.7 3.0 1.0
20 Taj Gibson CHA 3.3 3.9 0.5
21 Devin Carter SAC 3.2 1.5 1.0
22 Mason Jones SAC 3.1 1.8 1.2
23 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 2.9 1.4 0.9
24 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.6 1.5 0.5
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.4 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.