NBA games

POR @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
114–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR32292528114
UTAH33183130112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home UTAH
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 37 28 2 6
Jerami Grant S 38 20 4 3
Deni Avdija S 36 18 14 5
Scoot Henderson 30 17 5 6
Shaedon Sharpe 18 12 2 0
Toumani Camara S 36 8 8 3
Donovan Clingan S 25 7 13 1
Jabari Walker 14 4 2 1
Dalano Banton 4 0 1 1
Kris Murray 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh S 26 21 4 1
Keyonte George 34 21 5 5
Kyle Filipowski S 36 20 11 5
Micah Potter 26 12 7 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 22 10 2 1
KJ Martin S 28 9 5 2
Cody Williams 27 8 8 5
Isaiah Collier S 24 6 3 4
Johnny Juzang S 17 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
3 Deni Avdija POR
11%
4 Isaiah Collier UTAH
8%
5 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
7 KJ Martin UTAH
7%
8 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
9 Jerami Grant POR
7%
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 20.3 4.4 6.4
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.3 3.4 4.6
3 Anfernee Simons POR 19.6 3.1 6.4
4 Deandre Ayton POR 17.7 10.3 2.2
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.7 3.3 3.4
6 Deni Avdija POR 15.9 4.8 4.0
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR 15.9 3.2 2.8
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 14.9 4.6 8.8
9 Scoot Henderson POR 13.8 3.1 6.1
10 Toumani Camara POR 13.5 6.9 2.3
11 Jerami Grant POR 12.8 3.5 2.6
12 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.4 2.6 1.4
13 KJ Martin UTAH 8.7 3.6 1.0
14 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 8.7 4.5 1.8
15 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.9 2.7 1.3
16 Dalano Banton POR 7.0 1.6 1.9
17 Cody Williams UTAH 6.2 2.4 1.5
18 Donovan Clingan POR 6.1 6.7 0.8
19 Jabari Walker POR 5.2 3.7 0.9
20 Robert Williams III POR 5.2 6.6 1.1
21 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 5.1 2.0 1.0
22 Micah Potter UTAH 3.9 2.7 0.5
23 Jaden Springer UTAH 3.8 1.6 0.8
24 Kris Murray POR 3.3 1.8 0.8
25 Duop Reath POR 3.3 1.4 0.7
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.7 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.