NBA games

MIN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
131–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIN2817354110131
OKC323238197128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home OKC
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 42 27 10 4
Naz Reid S 41 22 11 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 35 21 5 3
Terrence Shannon Jr. 29 17 10 1
Anthony Edwards S 36 17 13 8
Rob Dillingham 26 12 4 5
Mike Conley S 14 8 0 1
Jaylen Clark S 29 5 1 2
Luka Garza 9 2 0 0
Joe Ingles 5 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 42 39 10 8
Jalen Williams S 42 27 6 6
Aaron Wiggins 29 19 7 0
Cason Wallace S 34 12 6 1
Isaiah Joe 18 9 3 2
Jaylin Williams 18 6 6 2
Alex Caruso 24 5 4 4
Luguentz Dort S 29 5 3 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 16 4 5 2
Kenrich Williams 12 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
13%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
12%
5 Naz Reid MIN
11%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
7 Jaylen Clark MIN
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
12%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.8 6.8 5.7
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 26.3 4.5 5.9
3 Naz Reid MIN 20.7 8.3 3.3
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.6 4.9 4.7
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.1 7.7 3.0
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 17.2 4.8 2.3
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.4 10.0 3.0
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.3 3.8 2.9
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.1 3.5 1.4
10 Mike Conley MIN 9.9 2.7 5.4
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.5 2.7 1.6
12 Cason Wallace OKC 8.7 3.7 2.3
13 Alex Caruso OKC 8.2 3.2 3.1
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.1 3.3 1.7
15 Jaylen Clark MIN 6.7 2.1 0.9
16 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.9 1.7 2.9
17 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.5 1.9 1.3
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.5 2.3 1.4
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.6 6.1 1.9
20 Luka Garza MIN 4.3 2.7 0.6
21 Dillon Jones OKC 3.8 2.4 1.7
22 Alex Ducas OKC 3.1 1.6 0.6
23 Josh Minott MIN 2.3 1.5 0.4
24 Leonard Miller MIN 2.1 1.5 0.3
25 Tristen Newton MIN 1.8 0.8 1.0
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.6 0.7 1.2
27 Adam Flagler OKC 1.5 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.