NBA games

MIA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
86–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2220232186
ATL2327232598

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ATL
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 36 23 4 1
Bam Adebayo S 37 14 5 1
Kyle Anderson 28 14 5 2
Tyler Herro S 35 11 6 3
Kel'el Ware S 24 8 15 3
Davion Mitchell S 24 6 1 2
Alec Burks 27 5 5 1
Duncan Robinson 21 3 3 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 7 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 29 17 8 3
Caris LeVert 28 15 4 2
Terance Mann 26 15 2 2
Trae Young S 38 11 3 14
Georges Niang 24 11 5 1
Dyson Daniels S 34 10 11 2
Mouhamed Gueye S 16 9 3 3
Clint Capela 19 8 11 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 26 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mouhamed Gueye · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Mouhamed Gueye makes two point shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
5 Trae Young ATL
10%
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
7 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
34%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.8 4.9 6.9
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 24.5 10.4 4.4
3 Trae Young ATL 24.0 3.2 12.0
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.1 5.0 3.5
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.6 6.6 5.9
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.8 9.2 3.4
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 14.8 4.1 1.8
8 Terry Rozier MIA 13.1 3.8 2.3
9 Nikola Jovic MIA 13.0 3.8 3.4
10 Georges Niang ATL 12.2 4.1 1.6
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.9 2.4 4.3
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.2 9.1 1.9
13 Caris LeVert ATL 9.8 3.9 2.2
14 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.4 2.2 2.0
15 Clint Capela ATL 8.3 8.6 1.0
16 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.6 3.9 2.1
17 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.4 1.5 2.3
18 Alec Burks MIA 5.8 3.3 1.2
19 Kyle Anderson MIA 5.7 3.7 1.7
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.7 3.7 0.8
21 Terance Mann ATL 5.4 2.4 1.2
22 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.2 1.9 1.1
23 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.9 2.4 0.5
24 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.8 1.8 0.5
25 Kevin Love MIA 3.5 1.9 0.7
26 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.8 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.