NBA games

CHI @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
142–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI39364027142
PHI30281834110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home PHI
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 31 25 16 6
Kevin Huerter S 34 23 0 4
Zach Collins S 28 19 5 1
Matas Buzelis S 36 17 3 5
Dalen Terry 21 17 4 3
Coby White 28 15 5 6
Julian Phillips 21 8 3 0
Jevon Carter 7 8 0 0
Lonzo Ball S 8 6 2 1
Tre Jones 19 4 4 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 30 19 2 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 33 19 8 1
Tyrese Maxey S 29 13 0 2
David Roddy 11 12 3 1
Ricky Council IV 23 12 4 2
Andre Drummond 14 10 8 0
Quentin Grimes S 24 9 3 1
Jared Butler 14 7 4 5
Lonnie Walker IV 24 5 7 3
Adem Bona 17 4 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:54 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 1-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
13%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
12%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
5 Paul George PHI
11%
6 Coby White CHI
10%
7 Lonzo Ball CHI
10%
8 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
9 Quentin Grimes PHI
9%
10 Zach Collins CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
34%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.8 3.9 7.3
2 Josh Giddey CHI 19.9 6.8 5.7
3 Coby White CHI 19.4 3.6 5.3
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.6 7.2 2.2
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.5 10.1 3.5
6 Paul George PHI 14.8 4.4 3.9
7 Quentin Grimes PHI 14.5 4.8 3.6
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 13.4 6.2 2.1
9 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.1 4.3 1.6
10 Lonzo Ball CHI 10.3 3.7 2.8
11 Tre Jones CHI 6.9 2.0 2.6
12 Jared Butler PHI 6.4 2.1 2.4
13 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 6.2 1.9 1.8
14 Andre Drummond PHI 6.0 5.7 1.1
15 Kevin Huerter CHI 5.3 2.0 1.4
16 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.1 1.9 1.7
17 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.0 1.6 2.1
18 Julian Phillips CHI 4.9 2.0 0.8
19 David Roddy PHI 4.9 3.4 1.2
20 Dalen Terry CHI 4.6 1.9 1.5
21 Adem Bona PHI 3.7 3.6 0.5
22 Zach Collins CHI 3.6 2.5 1.0
23 Jevon Carter CHI 3.1 0.8 0.8
24 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 3.0 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.