NBA games

DEN @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
125–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN36283625125
IND28302533116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home IND
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 24 25 5 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 19 11 3
Nikola Jokic S 39 18 9 19
Christian Braun S 37 17 8 1
Jamal Murray S 33 16 1 6
Zeke Nnaji 24 14 3 0
Russell Westbrook 23 7 3 5
Jalen Pickett 4 4 0 1
Julian Strawther 14 4 1 2
DeAndre Jordan 9 1 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 39 23 2 2
Pascal Siakam S 31 19 9 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 40 19 1 15
Aaron Nesmith S 33 17 4 0
Obi Toppin 17 11 3 2
Bennedict Mathurin 19 8 3 2
Ben Sheppard 24 7 7 1
Thomas Bryant 9 6 1 0
Andrew Nembhard S 27 6 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Christian Braun DEN
13%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Myles Turner IND
9%
9 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
31%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 26.7 3.7 6.8
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.0 10.5 8.8
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.8 6.8 2.4
4 Christian Braun DEN 19.1 6.7 3.7
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.0 3.8 8.5
6 Pascal Siakam IND 16.3 5.7 2.5
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.9 4.1 2.0
8 Myles Turner IND 15.3 4.8 2.1
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.4 4.8 5.6
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 12.5 4.5 4.7
11 Julian Strawther DEN 12.3 3.3 1.8
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.5 3.4 4.1
13 Obi Toppin IND 11.3 4.6 1.7
14 Thomas Bryant IND 9.4 5.7 2.4
15 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.4 3.4 1.8
16 Ben Sheppard IND 8.1 2.6 1.5
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.5 4.3 0.9
18 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.4 1.9 2.1
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.2 3.0 1.6
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.8 4.9 0.9
21 Jarace Walker IND 3.5 1.9 1.3
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.4 1.8 0.7
23 Spencer Jones DEN 2.6 1.3 0.6
24 Johnny Furphy IND 2.4 1.5 0.6
25 RayJ Dennis IND 1.4 0.6 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.