NBA games

LAC @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
97–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC1732262297
DET23283421106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DET
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 39 18 12 5
Derrick Jones Jr. 23 15 3 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 33 13 4 5
Ivica Zubac S 37 13 15 5
Kris Dunn S 35 13 5 4
Amir Coffey 29 10 4 3
Nicolas Batum S 22 9 3 1
Patty Mills 10 6 0 0
Drew Eubanks 11 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 32 9 7
Tobias Harris S 38 20 5 2
Jalen Duren S 31 12 19 2
Ausar Thompson S 27 10 3 3
Malik Beasley 24 9 0 1
Ronald Holland II 13 7 2 0
Dennis Schroder 19 7 2 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 35 6 2 2
Isaiah Stewart 17 3 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris DET
15%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 James Harden LAC
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
23%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.7 5.3 9.6
2 James Harden LAC 20.9 4.8 8.7
3 Tobias Harris DET 17.6 5.2 2.0
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 17.3 11.4 2.3
5 Jalen Duren DET 15.7 10.7 4.6
6 Malik Beasley DET 15.5 3.1 1.9
7 Ausar Thompson DET 13.3 6.1 3.8
8 Amir Coffey LAC 10.4 2.2 1.2
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.1 2.9 1.9
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.0 3.5 1.3
11 Dennis Schroder DET 10.0 2.8 4.0
12 Ben Simmons LAC 9.0 5.0 5.7
13 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 8.7 2.6 1.7
14 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.2 4.7 1.5
15 Kris Dunn LAC 6.5 4.1 3.1
16 Marcus Sasser DET 6.2 1.4 2.6
17 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.7 3.5 1.0
18 Ronald Holland II DET 5.4 2.2 1.3
19 Drew Eubanks LAC 5.2 3.7 0.8
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.7 2.5 0.7
21 Patty Mills LAC 3.9 1.4 0.9
22 Lindy Waters III DET 3.9 2.2 0.9
23 MarJon Beauchamp LAC 3.6 1.7 0.8
24 Paul Reed DET 3.6 3.1 0.8
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.6 1.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.