NBA games

OKC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
130–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC35264227130
MIN23403327123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIN
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 37 8 8
Chet Holmgren S 28 19 4 1
Jalen Williams S 36 18 3 9
Aaron Wiggins 19 15 0 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 12 9 5
Alex Caruso 24 11 7 2
Isaiah Joe 11 6 1 2
Cason Wallace 22 6 2 2
Luguentz Dort S 32 4 3 2
Kenrich Williams 3 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 29 10 7
Naz Reid S 40 22 11 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 34 18 2 2
Jaden McDaniels S 40 17 13 1
Jaylen Clark S 18 14 1 0
Mike Conley S 31 9 2 5
Luka Garza 9 7 4 1
Terrence Shannon Jr. 19 7 1 2
Rob Dillingham 10 0 0 3
Josh Minott 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
4 Naz Reid MIN
10%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
28%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.9 6.1 5.6
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 26.3 4.1 5.4
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.9 5.0 4.2
4 Naz Reid MIN 19.6 7.7 3.4
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 17.1 6.9 3.0
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 16.7 4.8 2.2
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 12.3 7.2 1.5
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.1 3.9 3.2
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.3 10.1 3.0
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.2 2.8 1.5
11 Cason Wallace OKC 9.7 3.8 2.5
12 Mike Conley MIN 9.7 2.8 5.7
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.6 3.6 1.4
14 Alex Caruso OKC 7.6 2.9 3.0
15 Rob Dillingham MIN 7.3 1.8 3.3
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.5 3.2 1.6
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 6.3 2.2 1.1
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.3 2.2 1.3
19 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.0 1.7 1.2
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.4 5.9 1.9
21 Luka Garza MIN 4.1 2.3 0.7
22 Dillon Jones OKC 3.7 2.3 1.6
23 Alex Ducas OKC 3.0 1.6 0.5
24 Leonard Miller MIN 2.2 1.5 0.3
25 Tristen Newton MIN 1.9 0.8 1.0
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 0.7 1.2
27 Josh Minott MIN 1.3 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.