NBA games

MEM @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
123–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM29273235123
CLE33293136129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home CLE
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 25 22 3 4
Ja Morant S 34 21 2 10
Luke Kennard 26 19 4 2
Santi Aldama 29 15 6 1
Jaylen Wells S 22 14 4 0
Vince Williams Jr. 20 10 1 1
Desmond Bane S 35 7 5 8
Brandon Clarke 16 6 2 1
Zach Edey S 25 6 9 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. 5 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 33 2 6
Ty Jerome 23 26 5 4
Evan Mobley S 36 25 13 8
Jarrett Allen S 31 13 10 1
De'Andre Hunter 25 12 8 2
Max Strus S 31 11 8 3
Isaac Okoro S 19 6 4 0
Sam Merrill 18 3 1 1
Dean Wade 17 0 6 0
Craig Porter Jr. 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes 1-foot layup (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
2 Ja Morant MEM
11%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
6 Zach Edey MEM
10%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
9%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
10 Javonte Green CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
26%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.1 4.2 5.4
2 Desmond Bane MEM 21.9 6.4 5.8
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.4 5.2 2.9
4 Ja Morant MEM 20.2 4.3 6.6
5 Evan Mobley CLE 20.1 9.4 3.8
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE 17.6 4.1 2.0
7 Ty Jerome CLE 14.5 3.4 4.1
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.3 11.4 2.2
9 Santi Aldama MEM 11.8 5.6 2.4
10 Max Strus CLE 10.6 4.3 3.5
11 Sam Merrill CLE 9.2 2.8 1.6
12 GG Jackson MEM 9.1 3.3 1.2
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.1 4.9 1.1
14 Luke Kennard MEM 8.0 2.5 3.2
15 Jaylen Wells MEM 7.8 2.8 1.3
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.9 4.3 1.9
17 Zach Edey MEM 6.5 7.4 1.0
18 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.2 2.8 2.9
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.9 2.3 2.0
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.9 2.6 1.8
21 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.5 1.8 1.3
22 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 5.3 3.5 1.7
23 Javonte Green CLE 5.1 3.0 1.2
24 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.6 3.5 1.2
25 Marvin Bagley III MEM 4.5 3.1 0.5
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.7 2.5 0.8
27 John Konchar MEM 2.6 2.1 0.6
28 Jay Huff MEM 2.3 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.