NBA games

SA @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
96–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA3023261796
NO26143539114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home NO
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julian Champagnie 19 18 4 4
Keldon Johnson 24 18 2 3
Harrison Barnes S 22 13 4 2
De'Aaron Fox S 34 13 7 5
Bismack Biyombo S 30 10 10 0
Devin Vassell S 25 5 3 1
Jeremy Sochan 21 4 8 3
Charles Bassey 6 4 3 1
Chris Paul S 25 4 3 7
Jordan McLaughlin 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 28 22 9 3
Karlo Matkovic 21 19 6 1
Trey Murphy III S 38 15 7 5
Kelly Olynyk S 25 14 15 2
CJ McCollum S 29 12 3 7
Jose Alvarado 30 12 9 8
Jordan Hawkins 24 10 3 0
Yves Missi S 23 6 15 1
Antonio Reeves 2 2 0 0
Bruce Brown 16 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bismack Biyombo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Bismack Biyombo makes 5-foot hook shot (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 CJ McCollum NO
14%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Yves Missi NO
9%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Kelly Olynyk NO
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
6%
Layup
55%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 27.5 8.1 5.1
2 Trey Murphy III NO 25.3 5.8 6.2
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 24.8 4.7 7.2
4 CJ McCollum NO 23.6 4.9 4.2
5 Stephon Castle SA 16.7 4.7 3.4
6 Devin Vassell SA 13.8 3.5 2.5
7 Harrison Barnes SA 11.9 4.8 1.7
8 Jose Alvarado NO 11.6 3.1 5.3
9 Keldon Johnson SA 11.3 3.2 2.0
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.6 4.1 4.3
11 Chris Paul SA 10.1 3.1 7.0
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.1 3.0 1.7
13 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.0 5.4 2.6
14 Kelly Olynyk NO 8.8 3.9 3.2
15 Yves Missi NO 7.9 8.1 1.3
16 Bruce Brown NO 7.4 3.7 1.7
17 Karlo Matkovic NO 6.8 5.1 1.4
18 Julian Champagnie SA 6.4 2.7 1.4
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.5 2.7 1.1
20 Charles Bassey SA 5.4 5.9 0.8
21 Antonio Reeves NO 4.5 1.6 1.2
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.0 2.9 0.8
23 Malaki Branham SA 3.4 1.3 0.7
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.3 1.2 1.0
25 Blake Wesley SA 3.1 1.4 1.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.