NBA games

MIA @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
113–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA37282820113
MIL23323035120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home MIL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 40 40 7 11
Bam Adebayo S 35 24 7 1
Andrew Wiggins S 40 20 6 4
Kel'el Ware S 37 12 12 4
Nikola Jovic 15 7 2 0
Davion Mitchell S 34 5 4 5
Duncan Robinson 21 3 4 0
Terry Rozier 10 2 2 0
Kyle Anderson 9 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 38 28 3 8
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 23 16 7
Brook Lopez S 34 17 4 1
Kyle Kuzma S 34 16 3 3
Gary Trent Jr. 23 16 4 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 14 11 3 2
AJ Green 30 5 1 2
Jericho Sims 14 2 4 1
Taurean Prince S 20 2 1 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 2 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Brook Lopez assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
9 Kel'el Ware MIA
6%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
29%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.2 11.9 6.1
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.9 5.2 7.1
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 24.6 11.5 4.9
4 Damian Lillard MIL 22.2 4.4 6.8
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.1 5.1 3.5
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 18.6 7.0 2.7
7 Nikola Jovic MIA 14.1 4.4 4.0
8 Bobby Portis MIL 13.9 9.2 2.4
9 Terry Rozier MIA 13.5 4.4 2.6
10 Brook Lopez MIL 12.8 5.2 2.0
11 Taurean Prince MIL 11.4 3.8 1.9
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.1 9.3 1.7
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.9 3.0 1.8
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.8 2.3 4.6
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.7 2.7 2.2
16 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 8.7 3.9 2.6
17 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.7 4.2 2.2
18 AJ Green MIL 7.6 2.6 1.5
19 Kyle Anderson MIA 6.5 4.2 2.1
20 Alec Burks MIA 6.5 3.6 1.3
21 Ryan Rollins MIL 6.2 2.2 1.8
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.6 2.9 1.3
23 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.3 1.9 1.1
24 Kevin Love MIA 3.6 2.0 0.8
25 Jericho Sims MIL 3.1 3.2 0.7
26 Tyler Smith MIL 2.9 1.2 0.4
27 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.9 1.3 0.5
28 Liam Robbins MIL 2.4 1.5 0.5
29 Chris Livingston MIL 1.4 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.