NBA games

PHX @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
109–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX25273027109
TOR29382139127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home TOR
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 31 4 8
Bradley Beal S 41 30 4 1
Kevin Durant S 40 15 4 4
Nick Richards S 21 10 8 0
Grayson Allen 24 9 4 1
Royce O'Neale S 28 5 4 2
Bol Bol 7 5 3 1
Mason Plumlee 17 4 3 2
Oso Ighodaro 1 0 1 0
Tyus Jones 15 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chris Boucher 20 23 10 2
Immanuel Quickley S 30 23 6 8
RJ Barrett S 32 23 6 7
Scottie Barnes S 35 20 9 4
Orlando Robinson S 20 10 7 2
Gradey Dick S 26 9 2 3
Ja'Kobe Walter 18 6 4 0
Jamal Shead 18 6 1 2
Ochai Agbaji 19 5 2 0
Jonathan Mogbo 20 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
6 Gradey Dick TOR
9%
7 Nick Richards PHX
9%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
9 Orlando Robinson TOR
8%
10 Vasilije Micic PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
58%
Jumper
23%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.8 4.2 6.8
2 Kevin Durant PHX 23.3 4.8 4.1
3 RJ Barrett TOR 22.4 6.0 5.4
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.1 7.4 5.5
5 Bradley Beal PHX 19.7 4.2 4.5
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.6 3.5 5.2
7 Gradey Dick TOR 12.3 4.5 1.4
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.3 4.0 2.5
9 Grayson Allen PHX 10.8 3.9 3.0
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.2 4.2 1.7
11 Jamal Shead TOR 10.2 2.2 4.9
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 10.0 3.2 1.8
13 Tyus Jones PHX 9.9 2.7 4.7
14 Vasilije Micic PHX 8.9 2.4 3.3
15 Bol Bol PHX 8.3 4.3 0.9
16 Chris Boucher TOR 8.2 3.8 1.1
17 Nick Richards PHX 7.5 9.6 0.9
18 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.7 3.4 1.8
19 Orlando Robinson TOR 5.6 3.6 1.4
20 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.5 6.0 1.9
21 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.9 1.6 0.8
22 Collin Gillespie PHX 3.5 0.9 1.3
23 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.5 1.1 0.9
24 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.2 2.3 0.5
25 Jamison Battle TOR 3.1 1.1 0.5
26 Damion Lee PHX 2.9 0.8 0.4
27 Jared Rhoden TOR 2.8 1.9 0.8
28 Oso Ighodaro PHX 2.3 1.8 0.7
29 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.