NBA games

WSH @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
90–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2918172690
ORL27223229110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ORL
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 28 16 3 4
Bub Carrington 29 13 5 4
Tristan Vukcevic 19 12 5 2
Richaun Holmes S 29 11 10 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 35 11 2 6
Kyshawn George S 27 9 2 3
Corey Kispert 29 9 1 1
Justin Champagnie S 31 6 6 0
Anthony Gill 7 3 2 0
Jalen McDaniels 6 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Black 27 23 7 3
Franz Wagner S 31 23 7 5
Paolo Banchero S 30 19 5 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 20 11 9 2
Goga Bitadze 22 11 9 3
Jett Howard 10 5 1 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 23 5 1 1
Cole Anthony S 21 5 1 1
Tristan da Silva 6 3 0 0
Caleb Houstan 10 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Poole · Layup (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Jordan Poole makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
17%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
16%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
4 Cole Anthony ORL
10%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
8 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
6%
10 Richaun Holmes WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
28%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 25.6 6.1 4.2
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.4 6.4 5.3
3 Jordan Poole WSH 21.7 4.3 4.9
4 Cole Anthony ORL 16.5 4.3 3.8
5 Corey Kispert WSH 13.8 3.7 1.9
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.9 4.9 3.9
7 Alex Sarr WSH 11.5 6.5 2.0
8 Bub Carrington WSH 10.5 3.1 4.1
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.3 6.8 1.8
10 Kyshawn George WSH 10.1 5.2 1.9
11 Anthony Black ORL 9.2 3.2 2.3
12 Marcus Smart WSH 8.3 2.2 3.2
13 Richaun Holmes WSH 8.1 6.5 1.6
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.5 3.0 1.4
15 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.2 3.4 0.9
16 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 6.2 3.2 1.1
17 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.0 2.3 1.2
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.9 4.4 0.9
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.8 6.6 1.2
20 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.4 2.1 1.1
21 Jett Howard ORL 4.2 1.5 1.2
22 Gary Harris ORL 4.0 1.9 0.9
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.4 1.1 0.6
24 Cory Joseph ORL 2.2 0.5 0.7
25 Anthony Gill WSH 1.1 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.