NBA games

DET @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
148–143
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET33433636148
ATL30383540143

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ATL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 38 7 12
Malik Beasley 34 24 7 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 28 18 1 2
Dennis Schroder 22 16 4 7
Ausar Thompson S 17 14 2 2
Jalen Duren S 23 13 5 6
Tobias Harris S 35 12 4 3
Isaiah Stewart 21 6 5 2
Ronald Holland II 13 4 1 1
Simone Fontecchio 5 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 38 38 2 13
Georges Niang 36 27 5 1
Dyson Daniels S 38 24 5 6
Zaccharie Risacher S 31 19 6 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 30 16 9 6
Clint Capela 18 8 7 0
Caris LeVert 23 7 1 1
Terance Mann 14 2 3 0
Mouhamed Gueye S 12 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes dunk (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris DET
13%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
12%
3 Jalen Duren DET
11%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
7 Trae Young ATL
9%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
9 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
38%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.5 5.4 8.9
2 Trae Young ATL 26.3 3.0 11.2
3 Tobias Harris DET 17.8 5.5 2.0
4 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.9 6.7 5.6
5 Malik Beasley DET 16.8 2.7 1.8
6 Jalen Duren DET 15.9 11.1 4.2
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.4 8.8 2.8
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 14.3 3.9 1.8
9 Ausar Thompson DET 12.5 6.2 3.4
10 Caris LeVert ATL 10.2 3.9 2.8
11 Georges Niang ATL 10.1 3.6 1.4
12 Dennis Schroder DET 9.5 2.7 4.1
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.3 3.0 1.9
14 Clint Capela ATL 8.7 8.2 1.0
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.1 4.4 1.4
16 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.4 1.4 2.3
17 Marcus Sasser DET 6.2 1.5 2.7
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.0 4.2 0.8
19 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.9 3.7 1.1
20 Ronald Holland II DET 5.7 2.2 1.3
21 Terance Mann ATL 5.4 2.3 1.2
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 4.7 2.5 0.6
23 Lindy Waters III DET 4.2 2.4 0.9
24 Paul Reed DET 3.8 3.3 0.9
25 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.6 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.