NBA games

LAC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
111–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC24312828111
IND31353528129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home IND
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 35 31 7 11
Ivica Zubac S 30 22 6 2
Amir Coffey S 26 14 3 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 29 11 1 2
MarJon Beauchamp 13 9 3 1
Ben Simmons 24 8 3 4
Derrick Jones Jr. S 19 6 0 0
Kris Dunn S 27 4 5 1
Patty Mills 5 4 0 0
Drew Eubanks 11 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 30 29 1 12
Aaron Nesmith S 25 19 6 1
Myles Turner S 31 17 6 4
T.J. McConnell 15 13 2 1
Pascal Siakam S 30 12 12 2
Andrew Nembhard S 30 12 5 1
Obi Toppin 24 10 5 6
Bennedict Mathurin 21 8 1 1
Thomas Bryant 12 7 3 1
Ben Sheppard 17 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 2-foot two point shot (Myles Turner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
17%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
15%
3 James Harden LAC
12%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
7 Amir Coffey LAC
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
10 Obi Toppin IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
31%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 20.4 4.9 9.0
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.0 4.2 7.4
3 Ivica Zubac LAC 18.6 12.0 2.9
4 Pascal Siakam IND 18.2 5.5 2.9
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 17.4 4.2 1.9
6 Myles Turner IND 15.5 4.8 1.8
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.4 3.2 4.5
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.6 4.0 1.4
9 Obi Toppin IND 10.4 4.6 1.4
10 Amir Coffey LAC 10.0 2.2 1.3
11 Thomas Bryant IND 9.6 5.7 2.3
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.7 2.8 4.7
13 Ben Simmons LAC 8.6 5.2 6.0
14 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 8.1 2.6 1.9
15 Ben Sheppard IND 7.7 2.5 1.6
16 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.3 3.3 1.8
17 Kris Dunn LAC 6.0 3.8 3.2
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.9 2.9 0.9
19 Drew Eubanks LAC 4.9 3.4 0.6
20 Jarace Walker IND 4.1 2.2 1.2
21 Patty Mills LAC 3.2 0.9 0.8
22 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.4 0.5
23 MarJon Beauchamp LAC 2.0 1.1 0.6
24 Kobe Brown LAC 1.9 1.5 0.7
25 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.