NBA games

DAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
102–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL18263127102
GS33283926126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home GS
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 28 17 4 3
Kyrie Irving S 32 17 5 4
Klay Thompson S 25 11 2 2
Jaden Hardy 16 11 1 1
Naji Marshall 21 9 5 2
Moses Brown 9 7 7 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 17 7 1 0
Kessler Edwards S 14 6 8 1
Brandon Williams 12 5 1 1
Dante Exum S 20 5 0 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 29 30 4 7
Jimmy Butler III S 28 18 3 5
Brandin Podziemski S 30 17 13 2
Moses Moody S 27 14 4 1
Draymond Green S 27 13 4 6
Quinten Post 18 10 6 3
Kevon Looney 13 7 3 0
Gui Santos 20 5 8 1
Kevin Knox II 7 4 1 0
Buddy Hield 18 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dante Exum · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Dante Exum makes 5-foot two point shot (Klay Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
14%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
13%
4 Brandin Podziemski GS
10%
5 Draymond Green GS
10%
6 Kessler Edwards DAL
8%
7 Moses Moody GS
8%
8 Dante Exum DAL
8%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
10 Stephen Curry GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
36%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.6 4.5 5.2
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.1 5.5 4.2
3 P.J. Washington DAL 20.7 9.8 3.3
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 17.3 5.0 5.4
5 Max Christie DAL 15.8 4.7 3.1
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 15.8 4.9 4.6
7 Klay Thompson DAL 15.3 4.2 2.3
8 Moses Moody GS 12.7 3.8 1.8
9 Naji Marshall DAL 12.6 5.0 2.3
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 11.1 2.7 3.8
11 Buddy Hield GS 11.0 3.8 2.0
12 Dante Exum DAL 10.7 2.4 3.4
13 Draymond Green GS 9.5 4.8 5.5
14 Quinten Post GS 7.3 3.7 1.4
15 Gary Payton II GS 6.1 2.2 1.3
16 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 5.7 3.5 1.5
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.6 6.8 2.0
18 Kessler Edwards DAL 5.5 3.9 1.6
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.2 1.5 0.8
20 Pat Spencer GS 4.8 2.0 1.3
21 Gui Santos GS 4.7 3.4 1.4
22 Kevin Knox II GS 4.4 2.2 0.7
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.8 2.7 0.9
24 Moses Brown DAL 3.6 2.3 0.6
25 Brandon Williams DAL 2.9 0.8 1.0
26 Kylor Kelley DAL 2.1 2.0 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.