NBA games

NY @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
105–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY19243923105
BOS38262529118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home BOS
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 41 24 18 0
Jalen Brunson S 38 22 3 4
Josh Hart S 40 20 11 9
Mikal Bridges S 28 14 0 1
OG Anunoby S 35 10 2 2
Cameron Payne 10 7 1 0
Landry Shamet 5 6 2 0
Miles McBride 27 2 2 2
Precious Achiuwa 15 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 25 10 9
Jaylen Brown S 37 24 8 2
Derrick White S 37 19 9 7
Kristaps Porzingis S 34 15 7 2
Jrue Holiday S 32 14 4 2
Luke Kornet 14 8 3 2
Sam Hauser 9 6 1 0
Al Horford 25 4 3 1
Payton Pritchard 17 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:55 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Hart NY
12%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
9%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
9 Precious Achiuwa NY
8%
10 Derrick White BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
29%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.0 3.5 7.2
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.0 6.6 6.2
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.9 10.0 2.9
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 21.1 6.6 3.1
5 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.9 5.2 4.5
6 Derrick White BOS 18.9 4.3 5.1
7 Josh Hart NY 17.5 9.5 5.9
8 Mikal Bridges NY 16.2 4.1 3.5
9 OG Anunoby NY 15.2 4.4 2.4
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.1 4.7 4.2
11 Precious Achiuwa NY 11.6 7.8 1.5
12 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.0 4.1 2.7
13 Miles McBride NY 9.2 2.7 1.7
14 Al Horford BOS 7.9 6.0 1.4
15 Sam Hauser BOS 7.1 2.9 1.2
16 Cameron Payne NY 6.7 1.7 3.0
17 Luke Kornet BOS 6.6 4.9 1.7
18 Torrey Craig BOS 5.8 2.7 0.9
19 Landry Shamet NY 4.7 1.4 0.9
20 Neemias Queta BOS 4.7 3.0 0.8
21 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.2 1.5 0.6
22 Delon Wright NY 3.1 1.7 1.6
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.8 2.3 0.6
24 Matt Ryan NY 2.7 1.2 0.6
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.7 1.2 0.7
26 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.5 1.6 0.9
27 Tyler Kolek NY 1.2 0.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.