NBA games

CHA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
88–141
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2119262288
POR38353632141

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home POR
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 23 17 3 3
Nick Smith Jr. S 33 14 2 2
Jusuf Nurkic 16 11 8 5
Mark Williams S 21 10 5 0
Wendell Moore Jr. 22 8 2 0
Tidjane Salaun 23 6 2 1
Seth Curry 21 6 1 1
LaMelo Ball S 22 5 4 2
Moussa Diabate 13 5 7 2
Josh Green S 23 4 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 26 25 3 4
Toumani Camara S 28 20 10 6
Jabari Walker 26 20 14 2
Shaedon Sharpe 21 20 3 5
Deni Avdija S 23 15 4 4
Scoot Henderson 20 13 1 5
Jerami Grant S 29 8 9 4
Donovan Clingan S 20 8 5 0
Duop Reath 11 8 4 2
Rayan Rupert 9 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
4 Mark Williams CHA
10%
5 Deni Avdija POR
8%
6 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
7%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
6%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
6%
9 Jerami Grant POR
6%
10 Elfrid Payton CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
33%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 24.4 8.2 4.6
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.2 4.5 6.8
3 Anfernee Simons POR 19.2 3.2 6.5
4 Mark Williams CHA 18.1 10.9 2.6
5 Deni Avdija POR 18.0 5.4 3.9
6 Deandre Ayton POR 17.1 10.7 2.2
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR 16.0 3.3 2.7
8 Scoot Henderson POR 14.6 3.5 5.5
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 14.3 3.1 2.9
10 Jerami Grant POR 12.6 3.5 2.4
11 Toumani Camara POR 12.4 7.1 2.1
12 Josh Green CHA 10.8 2.5 1.7
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.7 7.8 1.4
14 Dalano Banton POR 7.8 1.8 1.8
15 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.7 6.8 3.6
16 Seth Curry CHA 7.4 2.2 1.1
17 Elfrid Payton CHA 6.2 3.0 5.0
18 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.9 4.0 1.1
19 Donovan Clingan POR 5.7 6.8 0.8
20 Robert Williams III POR 5.5 6.7 1.1
21 Kris Murray POR 3.5 1.7 0.8
22 Jabari Walker POR 3.0 2.3 0.5
23 Taj Gibson CHA 2.8 3.8 0.5
24 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 2.4 1.3 0.9
25 Duop Reath POR 1.9 0.7 0.4
26 Rayan Rupert POR 1.3 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.