NBA games

HOU @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
115–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28342825115
UTAH29273137124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home UTAH
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 35 27 12 7
Jalen Green S 36 25 3 10
Amen Thompson S 37 22 9 2
Jeff Green 22 16 1 2
Dillon Brooks S 33 9 9 5
Aaron Holiday 20 5 3 3
Jock Landale 11 4 1 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 29 3 2 1
Reed Sheppard 8 3 0 0
Cam Whitmore 10 1 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George 29 30 8 6
Lauri Markkanen S 32 23 10 0
Brice Sensabaugh S 24 12 3 3
Isaiah Collier S 33 12 4 10
Walker Kessler S 33 11 17 3
KJ Martin S 29 11 4 1
Cody Williams 24 9 6 1
Kyle Filipowski 15 8 2 3
Johnny Juzang 17 6 3 1
Jaden Springer 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Walker Kessler · Layup (2 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Walker Kessler makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH
9%
8 Amen Thompson HOU
8%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
10 Tari Eason HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 23.9 4.3 4.9
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.5 3.4 4.7
3 Keyonte George UTAH 18.5 3.9 6.3
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 18.1 10.2 4.0
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 16.2 5.8 1.5
6 Amen Thompson HOU 15.3 8.2 6.5
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH 15.1 4.4 8.8
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.0 5.7 2.0
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.9 4.1 2.0
10 Tari Eason HOU 12.6 6.3 1.8
11 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.1 2.7 5.2
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.1 12.6 1.7
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.6 2.7 1.4
14 KJ Martin UTAH 8.7 3.6 1.1
15 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 8.2 4.4 1.5
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.2 2.3 1.7
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.1 2.7 1.2
18 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.4 2.3 1.0
19 Cody Williams UTAH 6.3 2.1 1.4
20 Steven Adams HOU 6.0 5.8 1.0
21 Jeff Green HOU 5.2 1.8 0.7
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.5 2.1 1.4
23 Jock Landale HOU 4.1 3.0 0.8
24 Jaden Springer UTAH 3.8 1.5 0.9
25 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 3.6 1.4 0.7
26 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.2 1.5 0.7
27 Nate Williams HOU 3.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.