NBA games

LAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
123–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL38253327123
DEN31233313100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DEN
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 31 32 10 7
LeBron James S 33 25 9 5
Austin Reaves S 33 23 4 7
Rui Hachimura S 36 21 0 4
Jordan Goodwin 11 5 1 0
Dalton Knecht 9 4 1 0
Jaxson Hayes S 25 4 4 1
Gabe Vincent 19 3 2 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 27 3 4 0
Trey Jemison III 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 35 24 5 4
Jamal Murray S 36 19 3 6
Russell Westbrook 24 17 4 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 30 13 8 1
Nikola Jokic S 35 12 13 10
Christian Braun S 29 10 3 3
Jalen Pickett 4 3 1 0
Julian Strawther 12 2 0 2
Spencer Jones 3 0 1 0
DeAndre Jordan 4 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · Layup (2 pts) · 10:41 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 3-foot layup (Jaxson Hayes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
4 Christian Braun DEN
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL
8%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
10 Aaron Gordon DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
45%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.1 7.8 9.2
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.7 3.8 6.5
3 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.4 10.1 8.8
4 Luka Doncic LAL 24.5 8.5 7.0
5 Austin Reaves LAL 23.4 4.8 6.6
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.0 6.6 2.1
7 Christian Braun DEN 18.6 6.6 3.3
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.9 5.4 1.8
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.3 4.7 5.3
10 Julian Strawther DEN 11.6 3.5 1.6
11 Aaron Gordon DEN 11.1 4.0 4.2
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.2 3.5 1.7
13 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.1 1.7 2.4
14 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.6 2.2 0.9
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.5 5.2 1.7
16 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.3 4.0 0.8
17 Jordan Goodwin LAL 6.2 4.4 1.2
18 Shake Milton LAL 4.4 2.0 1.7
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.3 5.1 1.1
20 Dario Saric DEN 3.8 3.0 1.5
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.2 1.6
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.6 5.0 0.9
23 Trey Jemison III LAL 3.2 2.9 0.6
24 Cam Reddish LAL 2.8 1.4 0.6
25 Alex Len LAL 2.5 2.0 0.8
26 Markieff Morris LAL 2.2 0.8 0.6
27 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.0 1.0 0.4
28 Spencer Jones DEN 1.2 0.6 0.3
29 PJ Hall DEN 1.2 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.