NBA games

PHX @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
121–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX20403328121
CHI30283227117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home CHI
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 29 4 8
Kevin Durant S 38 27 10 5
Bradley Beal S 38 25 6 4
Nick Richards S 28 15 10 0
Mason Plumlee 17 10 6 0
Bol Bol 13 8 2 0
Grayson Allen 24 3 3 4
Royce O'Neale S 24 2 5 2
Tyus Jones 20 2 3 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 35 24 8 10
Coby White S 31 20 4 8
Nikola Vucevic S 30 16 11 1
Matas Buzelis S 24 15 3 1
Kevin Huerter 30 14 2 2
Julian Phillips 24 9 3 1
Zach Collins 18 8 10 1
Dalen Terry 4 4 0 1
Tre Jones 14 4 1 3
Lonzo Ball S 29 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Matas Buzelis · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Matas Buzelis makes 6-foot dunk (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
5 Nick Richards PHX
9%
6 Lonzo Ball CHI
9%
7 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
8 Coby White CHI
8%
9 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
10 Vasilije Micic PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
49%
Jumper
33%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.9 4.1 7.3
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.0 4.6 4.7
3 Josh Giddey CHI 18.8 6.6 5.7
4 Bradley Beal PHX 18.2 4.0 4.8
5 Coby White CHI 18.0 3.6 4.3
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.9 10.3 4.0
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.9 4.5 1.6
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 12.1 4.0 2.6
9 Grayson Allen PHX 12.0 4.0 2.9
10 Lonzo Ball CHI 10.5 3.7 2.9
11 Tyus Jones PHX 10.4 2.7 5.3
12 Vasilije Micic PHX 9.4 2.4 3.7
13 Bol Bol PHX 8.3 4.3 1.1
14 Nick Richards PHX 7.4 9.4 1.0
15 Tre Jones CHI 7.2 2.1 2.7
16 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.3 6.1 2.1
17 Julian Phillips CHI 4.6 2.0 0.8
18 Kevin Huerter CHI 4.6 2.1 1.3
19 Collin Gillespie PHX 3.8 1.1 1.4
20 Dalen Terry CHI 3.7 1.6 1.2
21 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.6 2.4 0.6
22 Zach Collins CHI 3.5 2.1 1.0
23 Damion Lee PHX 3.3 0.9 0.5
24 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 3.2 0.8 0.6
25 Jevon Carter CHI 3.1 0.8 0.9
26 Oso Ighodaro PHX 2.6 1.9 0.8
27 Monte Morris PHX 2.6 0.9 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.