NBA games

GS @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
132–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS31373232132
SAC28253025108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SAC
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody S 29 22 2 4
Buddy Hield 26 22 3 2
Brandin Podziemski S 30 21 3 5
Stephen Curry S 31 20 1 6
Jimmy Butler III S 32 17 3 7
Quinten Post 14 9 5 0
Draymond Green S 28 6 8 9
Kevin Knox II 3 5 1 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 3 4 1 0
Gary Payton II 15 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 34 34 4 6
Domantas Sabonis S 32 14 14 9
Zach LaVine S 34 13 5 3
Keegan Murray S 34 13 5 0
Malik Monk S 30 13 0 4
Markelle Fultz 10 8 0 1
Jonas Valanciunas 9 6 2 1
Mason Jones 4 3 0 1
Isaiah Crawford 4 2 1 0
Keon Ellis 24 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
2 Zach LaVine SAC
12%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
12%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
5 Malik Monk SAC
9%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Stephen Curry GS
8%
10 Moses Moody GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
18%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.4 4.3 4.6
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.1 4.0 3.7
3 Zach LaVine SAC 23.0 3.6 4.6
4 Malik Monk SAC 19.7 4.9 6.1
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.7 12.8 6.0
6 Jimmy Butler III GS 14.8 4.3 4.4
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.6 4.9 4.4
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.0 6.0 1.5
9 Moses Moody GS 11.0 3.4 1.3
10 Keon Ellis SAC 10.1 3.5 1.4
11 Draymond Green GS 8.8 4.7 5.3
12 Buddy Hield GS 8.7 3.3 1.7
13 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 7.1 6.4 1.4
14 Quinten Post GS 5.9 3.1 1.1
15 Kevon Looney GS 5.0 6.6 1.6
16 Gary Payton II GS 4.9 2.0 1.0
17 Jae Crowder SAC 3.9 2.2 0.7
18 Trey Lyles SAC 3.6 2.6 0.7
19 Gui Santos GS 3.5 2.8 0.9
20 Pat Spencer GS 3.4 1.3 0.8
21 Jake LaRavia SAC 2.9 2.5 0.6
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.7 2.2 0.8
23 Mason Jones SAC 2.5 1.5 1.0
24 Devin Carter SAC 2.1 1.1 0.7
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.1 0.5 0.4
26 Isaiah Crawford SAC 1.4 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.