NBA games

OKC @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
130–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC29393131130
UTAH22253723107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home UTAH
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 32 21 2 8
Chet Holmgren S 28 20 7 1
Jalen Williams S 28 18 9 4
Isaiah Joe 18 15 5 2
Aaron Wiggins 22 12 3 5
Cason Wallace 22 10 3 5
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 8 13 4
Alex Caruso 18 8 3 6
Kenrich Williams 10 6 1 0
Luguentz Dort S 26 6 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins S 31 26 3 1
Keyonte George 31 20 3 6
Jordan Clarkson S 30 19 4 2
Kyle Filipowski 16 12 3 2
Isaiah Collier S 29 9 3 12
Jaden Springer 11 7 1 2
Lauri Markkanen S 29 5 4 1
Walker Kessler S 32 4 19 1
Cody Williams 16 3 3 0
KJ Martin 16 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
9%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
8%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
7%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
8 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
6%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
6%
10 Chet Holmgren OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
18%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 27.0 4.4 6.0
2 Jalen Williams OKC 22.4 4.8 5.2
3 John Collins UTAH 19.8 8.0 1.7
4 Keyonte George UTAH 17.4 3.8 5.8
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 16.6 3.1 3.2
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 16.5 5.7 1.3
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 15.1 4.5 1.7
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 14.4 4.5 8.1
9 Chet Holmgren OKC 12.4 7.0 1.6
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 11.6 12.2 1.6
11 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.6 10.3 3.1
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.1 2.5 1.5
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 10.0 2.9 1.4
14 KJ Martin UTAH 9.5 3.9 1.2
15 Cason Wallace OKC 9.2 3.1 2.5
16 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.1 3.3 1.4
17 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.9 4.0 1.4
18 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.6 2.4 1.0
19 Alex Caruso OKC 6.2 2.4 2.7
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.7 2.9 1.5
21 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.1 6.2 2.1
22 Cody Williams UTAH 5.1 1.6 1.3
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.2 1.5 1.0
24 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 3.6 1.4 0.7
25 Branden Carlson OKC 3.3 1.2 0.4
26 Dillon Jones OKC 2.6 1.9 1.4
27 Alex Ducas OKC 2.5 1.1 0.4
28 Jaden Springer UTAH 2.0 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.