NO @ DAL
NBA
American Airlines Center
·Final
103–111
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 22 | 31 | 29 | 21 | 103 |
| DAL | 32 | 24 | 30 | 25 | 111 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
DAL
31%
69%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson S | 27 | 29 | 7 | 3 |
| Trey Murphy III S | 36 | 20 | 6 | 6 |
| CJ McCollum S | 30 | 16 | 6 | 5 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 21 | 9 | 5 | 1 |
| Jose Alvarado | 30 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| Bruce Brown | 22 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Yves Missi S | 24 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 21 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Kelly Olynyk S | 24 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Antonio Reeves | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Trey Murphy III ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
CJ McCollum
NO
10%
2
Zion Williamson
NO
9%
3
P.J. Washington
DAL
9%
4
Max Christie
DAL
8%
5
Trey Murphy III
NO
8%
6
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
DAL
7%
7
Jose Alvarado
NO
7%
8
Yves Missi
NO
6%
9
Herbert Jones
NO
6%
10
Dante Exum
DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
45%
Layup
16%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zion Williamson | NO | 26.7 | 7.8 | 5.1 |
| 2 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 24.8 | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| 3 | Kyrie Irving | DAL | 23.7 | 5.8 | 4.9 |
| 4 | CJ McCollum | NO | 23.0 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| 5 | P.J. Washington | DAL | 20.0 | 10.3 | 3.9 |
| 6 | Max Christie | DAL | 15.8 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| 7 | Klay Thompson | DAL | 15.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| 8 | Naji Marshall | DAL | 13.0 | 4.7 | 2.6 |
| 9 | Spencer Dinwiddie | DAL | 12.3 | 2.3 | 4.4 |
| 10 | Dante Exum | DAL | 11.0 | 2.1 | 3.4 |
| 11 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 10.6 | 2.4 | 4.7 |
| 12 | Herbert Jones | NO | 10.2 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| 13 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 9.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 14 | Bruce Brown | NO | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 15 | Yves Missi | NO | 7.0 | 7.5 | 0.9 |
| 16 | Jaden Hardy | DAL | 6.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 17 | Kelly Olynyk | NO | 6.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| 18 | Olivier-Maxence Prosper | DAL | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 19 | Kessler Edwards | DAL | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 20 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 |
| 21 | Moses Brown | DAL | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 22 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 4.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 |
| 23 | Brandon Williams | DAL | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 24 | Antonio Reeves | NO | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 25 | Kylor Kelley | DAL | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.