NBA games

DET @ SA

NBA Moody Center ·Final
125–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET36273824125
SA27351830110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home SA
88% 12%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 30 25 1 12
Tobias Harris S 30 22 7 2
Jalen Duren S 27 21 15 5
Malik Beasley 23 16 0 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 24 9 1 2
Dennis Schroder 18 9 1 3
Ausar Thompson S 24 8 7 4
Isaiah Stewart 19 5 8 1
Ronald Holland II 20 4 5 0
Paul Reed 3 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 30 28 4 5
De'Aaron Fox S 30 27 5 5
Stephon Castle 13 12 3 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 22 10 7 2
Jeremy Sochan 28 8 3 3
Devin Vassell S 23 6 1 0
Charles Bassey 11 6 2 2
Chris Paul S 22 3 0 2
Blake Wesley 3 3 0 0
Bismack Biyombo S 12 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris DET
16%
2 Jalen Duren DET
15%
3 Devin Vassell SA
14%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
14%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
13%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
11%
7 Chris Paul SA
9%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
9 Cade Cunningham DET
0%
10 Simone Fontecchio DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
31%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.4 5.4 8.8
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 23.1 4.2 6.4
3 Stephon Castle SA 17.3 4.6 3.7
4 Tobias Harris DET 15.6 4.9 1.6
5 Devin Vassell SA 15.3 3.3 2.4
6 Malik Beasley DET 15.0 2.9 1.8
7 Jalen Duren DET 14.8 11.6 3.6
8 Harrison Barnes SA 11.7 4.7 1.9
9 Ausar Thompson DET 11.1 5.8 3.1
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 9.7 4.9 2.6
11 Chris Paul SA 9.6 3.1 7.2
12 Keldon Johnson SA 9.4 2.9 1.5
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 8.5 2.5 1.7
14 Dennis Schroder DET 8.4 2.5 4.0
15 Julian Champagnie SA 6.2 2.4 1.3
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.8 3.4 1.1
17 Marcus Sasser DET 5.0 0.9 2.5
18 Simone Fontecchio DET 4.7 2.9 0.8
19 Ronald Holland II DET 4.4 1.6 1.0
20 Lindy Waters III DET 3.7 1.8 0.7
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.4 1.2 0.6
22 Charles Bassey SA 2.9 4.4 0.3
23 Paul Reed DET 2.7 2.7 0.7
24 David Duke Jr. SA 1.9 1.0 0.9
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.5 0.5 0.6
26 Malaki Branham SA 1.5 0.4 0.4
27 Blake Wesley SA 1.3 0.6 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.