NBA games

MIN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
115–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN38292622115
HOU48203023121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home HOU
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 37 4 3
Naz Reid S 34 22 8 3
Jaden McDaniels S 42 21 6 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 43 16 5 3
Luka Garza 11 6 4 1
Terrence Shannon Jr. 19 6 3 2
Mike Conley S 24 5 2 5
Rob Dillingham 8 2 2 0
Jaylen Clark 20 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 39 35 5 4
Alperen Sengun S 36 24 13 2
Amen Thompson S 40 17 10 6
Jabari Smith Jr. 38 15 9 2
Tari Eason S 27 12 3 1
Aaron Holiday 18 10 1 1
Dillon Brooks S 30 8 6 2
Jae'Sean Tate 7 0 1 0
Steven Adams 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
22%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
5 Naz Reid MIN
7%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
6%
8 Tari Eason HOU
6%
9 Mike Conley MIN
6%
10 Aaron Holiday HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
17%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.1 5.8 5.5
2 Jalen Green HOU 22.1 4.3 3.9
3 Naz Reid MIN 18.0 7.2 3.2
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 17.0 9.2 3.6
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.2 6.6 2.6
6 Amen Thompson HOU 14.5 7.9 5.8
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.3 3.6 1.6
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.8 5.8 1.7
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.3 3.4 2.8
10 Fred VanVleet HOU 10.7 2.7 4.6
11 Tari Eason HOU 10.5 5.9 1.6
12 Mike Conley MIN 8.6 2.5 5.2
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.1 2.8 1.1
14 Rob Dillingham MIN 7.0 1.6 3.2
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.6 1.6 1.3
16 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.0 1.9 0.6
17 Jeff Green HOU 4.9 1.8 0.6
18 Steven Adams HOU 4.7 6.0 0.7
19 Jock Landale HOU 3.9 3.1 0.7
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.6 1.6 1.0
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.0 1.5 0.6
22 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.9 1.1 0.8
23 Nate Williams HOU 2.9 0.9 0.4
24 Luka Garza MIN 2.8 1.8 0.4
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.2 1.6 0.3
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 0.7 1.2
27 Josh Minott MIN 1.4 1.0 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.