NBA games

MIA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
120–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIA3027272313120
TOR192932274111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home TOR
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 40 28 3 7
Andrew Wiggins S 42 25 8 1
Bam Adebayo S 37 19 12 1
Davion Mitchell S 34 16 2 1
Duncan Robinson 23 14 3 0
Nikola Jovic 35 7 5 5
Terry Rozier 16 5 2 1
Kel'el Ware S 21 4 6 1
Kyle Anderson 11 2 2 3
Alec Burks 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 38 29 3 4
Immanuel Quickley S 38 23 7 3
Scottie Barnes S 38 13 6 3
Orlando Robinson S 31 9 5 4
Jamal Shead 18 9 2 5
Gradey Dick S 34 9 10 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 17 8 4 0
Jonathan Mogbo 19 5 1 0
Chris Boucher 14 4 5 3
Ochai Agbaji 18 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Orlando Robinson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Orlando Robinson makes 1-foot layup (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
9 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
10 Kyle Anderson MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
37%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.5 4.7 6.5
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.3 11.6 4.5
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.4 7.3 5.5
4 RJ Barrett TOR 20.2 6.3 5.0
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 18.2 4.7 2.8
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.9 3.1 4.6
7 Nikola Jovic MIA 14.1 4.3 3.3
8 Terry Rozier MIA 12.7 3.5 2.3
9 Gradey Dick TOR 10.2 3.3 1.0
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.0 8.9 1.3
11 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.6 2.1 2.0
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 8.9 1.7 4.1
13 Ochai Agbaji TOR 8.4 3.5 1.1
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.9 2.6 1.4
15 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.8 4.3 2.0
16 Jamal Shead TOR 7.7 1.7 3.9
17 Chris Boucher TOR 6.6 3.0 0.5
18 Alec Burks MIA 5.8 3.2 1.0
19 Kyle Anderson MIA 5.0 3.6 1.5
20 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.5 2.5 1.3
21 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.1 2.1 1.0
22 Orlando Robinson TOR 3.4 3.1 0.7
23 Kevin Love MIA 3.2 1.9 0.7
24 Jamison Battle TOR 2.7 1.1 0.4
25 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.6 1.3 0.4
26 Jared Rhoden TOR 2.5 1.7 0.7
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.