NBA games

MIL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
104–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL19313420104
WSH32241926101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home WSH
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 34 19 8 5
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 19 18 6 3
Brook Lopez S 30 18 9 2
Ryan Rollins S 34 15 4 4
Kevin Porter Jr. 23 12 3 3
AJ Green S 37 9 3 3
Gary Trent Jr. 30 9 6 2
Pat Connaughton 11 4 0 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 3 0 0 0
Jericho Sims 18 0 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 26 22 7 1
Corey Kispert 23 16 2 2
Khris Middleton S 25 12 5 2
Jordan Poole S 31 11 2 5
Bub Carrington 23 8 3 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 31 7 5 4
Richaun Holmes 19 7 6 3
Justin Champagnie 8 5 1 0
Marcus Smart 17 5 1 1
Tristan Vukcevic 3 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 17-foot hook shot (Ryan Rollins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
14%
2 Kyle Kuzma MIL
12%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
8 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
15%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.0 11.6 6.8
2 Jordan Poole WSH 22.2 4.4 5.4
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL 18.5 7.0 2.5
4 Bobby Portis MIL 15.0 9.6 2.6
5 Corey Kispert WSH 14.0 3.5 1.8
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 13.5 4.7 4.2
7 Brook Lopez MIL 12.6 4.9 2.1
8 Khris Middleton WSH 12.4 3.2 3.7
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.3 2.9 2.1
10 Alex Sarr WSH 10.8 6.1 2.0
11 Bub Carrington WSH 10.0 2.7 4.1
12 Kyshawn George WSH 9.8 4.4 1.8
13 Richaun Holmes WSH 7.8 6.1 1.3
14 Marcus Smart WSH 7.8 2.0 3.5
15 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 7.7 3.6 2.5
16 AJ Green MIL 7.5 2.6 1.4
17 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.1 2.9 1.3
18 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 5.1 2.6 1.0
19 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.9 3.0 0.7
20 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.0 1.3 1.2
21 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.3 1.7 1.1
22 Tyler Smith MIL 3.2 1.2 0.5
23 Jericho Sims MIL 3.0 2.8 0.7
24 AJ Johnson WSH 2.7 0.8 0.9
25 Colby Jones WSH 2.0 1.3 0.5
26 Anthony Gill WSH 1.8 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.