NBA games

MEM @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
105–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM29242725105
ORL22313021104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home ORL
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 33 23 4 5
Desmond Bane S 36 16 7 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 27 16 4 1
Brandon Clarke 27 13 11 2
GG Jackson 17 12 2 0
Santi Aldama 31 9 11 4
Jaylen Wells S 17 7 3 1
Luke Kennard 22 5 2 4
Zach Edey S 12 2 6 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. 17 2 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 38 25 6 3
Paolo Banchero S 29 21 6 2
Cole Anthony S 34 17 9 7
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 10 11 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 9 2 3
Tristan da Silva 17 8 2 3
Gary Harris 13 7 1 0
Goga Bitadze 19 4 5 0
Jett Howard 12 3 2 3
Anthony Black 15 0 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 9-foot two point shot (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
19%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
4 Ja Morant MEM
10%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
6 Zach Edey MEM
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Cole Anthony ORL
8%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
30%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 26.2 6.2 4.2
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.4 6.3 5.8
3 Desmond Bane MEM 22.3 6.1 6.1
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.6 5.1 2.8
5 Ja Morant MEM 19.8 4.3 7.4
6 Cole Anthony ORL 14.1 3.8 3.6
7 Santi Aldama MEM 10.8 5.4 2.0
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.6 6.7 2.1
9 Anthony Black ORL 10.2 2.9 2.5
10 GG Jackson MEM 10.0 3.7 1.3
11 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.0 4.9 1.0
12 Luke Kennard MEM 8.0 2.4 3.3
13 Jaylen Wells MEM 7.7 2.8 1.3
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.5 3.0 1.3
15 Zach Edey MEM 7.3 7.9 1.0
16 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.8 3.0 3.1
17 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.6 2.7 1.6
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.1 7.0 1.3
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.0 4.5 0.9
20 Marvin Bagley III MEM 4.9 3.3 0.6
21 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.6 3.5 1.2
22 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.4 2.1 1.1
23 Gary Harris ORL 4.1 1.8 1.0
24 Jett Howard ORL 3.6 1.2 0.9
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.5 1.2 0.6
26 John Konchar MEM 3.0 2.4 0.6
27 Jay Huff MEM 2.8 1.5 0.5
28 Cory Joseph ORL 2.3 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.