NBA games

LAL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
110–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL28272332110
POR15323025102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home POR
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 36 40 8 4
Austin Reaves S 40 32 1 7
Dorian Finney-Smith S 33 10 6 0
Jaxson Hayes S 28 9 7 4
Gabe Vincent 16 7 1 1
Trey Jemison III 14 6 4 0
Rui Hachimura S 35 6 12 1
Dalton Knecht 13 0 2 2
Jordan Goodwin 20 0 5 1
Shake Milton 5 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 34 28 4 5
Toumani Camara S 38 19 7 3
Scoot Henderson 30 12 2 5
Shaedon Sharpe 21 11 1 2
Robert Williams III 25 8 6 1
Anfernee Simons S 29 8 4 7
Dalano Banton 11 7 0 2
Donovan Clingan S 17 6 6 0
Jerami Grant S 30 3 2 2
Kris Murray 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anfernee Simons · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Anfernee Simons makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
2 LeBron James LAL
10%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
5 Deni Avdija POR
9%
6 Jerami Grant POR
9%
7 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Scoot Henderson POR
7%
10 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 29.0 7.8 9.1
2 Austin Reaves LAL 22.5 5.3 6.3
3 Anfernee Simons POR 18.4 2.9 5.6
4 Deni Avdija POR 17.3 5.3 3.7
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.8 4.8 1.8
6 Deandre Ayton POR 16.4 10.0 2.2
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR 14.8 3.1 1.9
8 Jerami Grant POR 12.5 3.0 1.8
9 Scoot Henderson POR 12.5 2.9 4.9
10 Toumani Camara POR 11.8 6.9 1.9
11 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.1 1.7 2.3
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.4 3.2 1.6
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 8.0 2.4 0.8
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.5 4.7 1.4
15 Jordan Goodwin LAL 6.1 4.1 1.0
16 Dalano Banton POR 6.1 1.3 1.4
17 Donovan Clingan POR 4.2 6.6 0.7
18 Robert Williams III POR 3.3 5.3 0.6
19 Shake Milton LAL 3.2 1.3 1.3
20 Jabari Walker POR 3.0 2.4 0.5
21 Cam Reddish LAL 2.8 1.5 0.6
22 Alex Len LAL 2.6 2.1 0.7
23 Markieff Morris LAL 2.3 0.8 0.5
24 Kris Murray POR 2.2 1.1 0.5
25 Bronny James LAL 1.9 0.7 0.5
26 Duop Reath POR 1.8 0.6 0.4
27 Trey Jemison III LAL 1.7 2.0 0.3
28 Rayan Rupert POR 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.