NBA games

PHX @ SA

NBA Moody Center ·Final
109–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX21332530109
SA31293426120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home SA
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Royce O'Neale S 36 27 6 3
Kevin Durant S 39 22 5 2
Bradley Beal 33 19 9 6
Devin Booker S 41 17 2 8
Grayson Allen 33 11 2 3
Bol Bol 10 5 4 0
Nick Richards S 9 3 6 0
Tyus Jones S 23 3 2 3
Mason Plumlee 17 2 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 37 26 9 7
Keldon Johnson 25 15 4 2
Julian Champagnie 16 15 2 2
Chris Paul S 32 13 5 10
Devin Vassell S 33 13 2 0
Jeremy Sochan 28 12 5 4
Stephon Castle 26 10 10 2
Harrison Barnes S 27 8 4 1
Bismack Biyombo S 16 8 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 22-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
13%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
4 Devin Vassell SA
9%
5 Stephon Castle SA
9%
6 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
7 Nick Richards PHX
8%
8 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
6%
10 Bol Bol PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
20%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.4 4.4 6.8
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.0 4.6 4.6
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 22.4 4.1 6.3
4 Stephon Castle SA 18.7 4.3 3.7
5 Bradley Beal PHX 16.8 3.4 4.2
6 Devin Vassell SA 14.1 3.5 2.3
7 Harrison Barnes SA 13.7 5.1 1.9
8 Tyus Jones PHX 10.9 2.6 4.8
9 Grayson Allen PHX 10.9 3.7 2.5
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.9 3.5 2.0
11 Vasilije Micic PHX 9.4 2.5 3.6
12 Chris Paul SA 9.0 2.5 6.7
13 Jeremy Sochan SA 7.8 4.5 2.0
14 Keldon Johnson SA 7.5 2.5 1.1
15 Nick Richards PHX 6.9 8.8 0.8
16 Bol Bol PHX 6.9 3.8 0.7
17 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.5 5.7 1.6
18 Julian Champagnie SA 4.4 1.8 0.9
19 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 4.0 1.2 1.0
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.8 1.3 0.7
21 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.6 2.4 0.6
22 Damion Lee PHX 3.3 0.9 0.5
23 Oso Ighodaro PHX 2.6 1.8 0.8
24 Monte Morris PHX 2.6 0.8 1.1
25 David Duke Jr. SA 2.3 1.1 0.9
26 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.9 0.6 0.6
27 Malaki Branham SA 1.9 0.5 0.4
28 Harrison Ingram SA 1.7 1.5 0.4
29 Blake Wesley SA 1.7 0.7 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.