NBA games

CHA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
115–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA30283819115
DEN38283330129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home DEN
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 34 36 13 7
Josh Green S 27 19 3 2
Nick Smith Jr. S 33 16 1 3
Damion Baugh 32 14 0 6
Moussa Diabate 29 11 6 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 19 9 10 7
Seth Curry 13 7 1 0
Tidjane Salaun 24 3 8 0
Wendell Moore Jr. 13 0 1 0
Elfrid Payton S 16 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 35 34 1 4
Nikola Jokic S 37 29 17 9
Aaron Gordon S 32 18 7 2
Julian Strawther 22 16 4 2
Christian Braun S 33 10 2 2
Russell Westbrook 26 8 3 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 6 11 3
Zeke Nnaji 16 4 3 0
DeAndre Jordan 11 4 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
4 Christian Braun DEN
8%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
7 Russell Westbrook DEN
7%
8 Josh Green CHA
7%
9 Julian Strawther DEN
7%
10 Aaron Gordon DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
26%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.7 9.4 9.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.8 3.9 6.2
3 Miles Bridges CHA 23.3 8.3 4.2
4 Christian Braun DEN 20.5 6.7 3.4
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.8 6.7 1.9
6 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 13.7 3.0 3.2
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 12.7 4.4 5.0
8 Grant Williams CHA 12.6 6.0 2.1
9 Josh Green CHA 10.8 2.7 1.8
10 Julian Strawther DEN 9.5 3.0 1.2
11 Aaron Gordon DEN 9.0 3.2 3.7
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.6 7.9 1.2
13 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 8.1 7.2 3.6
14 Seth Curry CHA 7.1 2.2 1.2
15 Elfrid Payton CHA 6.9 3.2 5.6
16 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.9 3.5 1.2
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.6 3.6 0.5
18 Dario Saric DEN 4.1 3.2 1.5
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.8 1.3 1.7
20 Taj Gibson CHA 3.0 4.2 0.5
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 4.2 0.7
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.2 1.1 0.4
23 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 1.4 0.8 0.7
24 Spencer Jones DEN 1.3 0.6 0.3
25 PJ Hall DEN 1.3 1.1 0.3
26 Trey Alexander DEN 1.3 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.