NBA games

LAC @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
110–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC29213921110
MIL28292336116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MIL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 32 25 4 4
James Harden S 39 24 5 8
Ivica Zubac S 37 20 15 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 20 15 2 5
Amir Coffey S 30 8 2 0
Ben Simmons 20 6 5 4
Kris Dunn S 31 5 7 5
Derrick Jones Jr. 20 4 2 0
Nicolas Batum 11 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 24 23 8 4
Brook Lopez S 31 22 7 2
Damian Lillard S 33 15 7 7
Taurean Prince S 31 14 7 1
Kyle Kuzma S 37 13 7 1
Kevin Porter Jr. 15 13 0 2
AJ Green 30 9 3 2
Gary Trent Jr. 22 7 0 3
Jericho Sims 17 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
6 James Harden LAC
9%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
6%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
24%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
33%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.2 11.3 7.5
2 Damian Lillard MIL 23.7 4.3 6.9
3 James Harden LAC 20.7 5.0 9.2
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 20.0 5.8 3.7
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 18.2 7.1 2.3
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.9 12.5 2.7
7 Bobby Portis MIL 14.5 9.5 2.4
8 Brook Lopez MIL 11.0 4.3 1.5
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.3 4.0 1.2
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.3 2.7 1.6
11 Taurean Prince MIL 9.8 3.3 2.0
12 Amir Coffey LAC 9.4 1.8 1.1
13 Ben Simmons LAC 8.7 5.0 6.1
14 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 8.4 2.3 1.5
15 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 8.2 3.9 2.4
16 Kris Dunn LAC 5.2 3.0 3.2
17 Drew Eubanks LAC 5.2 3.5 0.6
18 AJ Green MIL 5.2 2.2 1.0
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.8 2.8 1.2
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.2 2.4 0.6
21 Patty Mills LAC 3.7 1.0 0.8
22 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.7 1.2 1.1
23 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.0 1.7 1.0
24 Tyler Smith MIL 2.8 1.2 0.4
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.4 1.7 0.8
26 MarJon Beauchamp LAC 2.3 1.2 0.6
27 Jericho Sims MIL 1.4 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.